Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense — CONMEBOL Libertadores

CONMEBOL Libertadores· Round of 16

Independ. Rivadavia

1–1After Penalties

Fluminense

LWWDLDGoals 8-101st in league

DWDDWWGoals 18-72nd in league

Home2W 1D 0L(6-2)

Away0W 2D 1L(1-3)

Match events

13'Hercules
26'S. Studer
38'A. Canobbio
53'L. Bucca
58'A. Canobbio
58'A. Canobbio
60'Yeferson Soteldo
60'Hulk
64'A. Arce
66'Ganso (Luciano Acosta)
67'Hulk (K. Serna)
76'K. Serna (Hercules)
82'Yeferson Soteldo (J. Millán)
83'L. Bucca (L. Sabato)
83'T. Bottari (R. Atencio)
87'Ezequiel Bonifacio (A. Vigo)
90+4'R. Castillo
90+5'A. Arce
90+8'J. M. Elordi (I. Villalba)
120+1'Thiago Silva
120+1'M. Fernandez
120+2'Luciano Acosta
120+2'I. Villalba
120+3'Rene
120+3'J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
120+4'Hercules
120+4'M. Salas
120+5'Matheus Martinelli
120+5'A. Arce
120+6'Guga

Lineups

Independ. Rivadavia

Fluminense

AI match analysis

Independ. Rivadavia win

36%

Draw

34%

Fluminense win

30%

39.8%BTTS

36.4%Over 2.5

24.7%Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet

47.2%Fluminense clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a closely contested match with Independ. Rivadavia remaining unbeaten at home this season. Fluminense has struggled to secure wins on the road, which may hinder their opportunities, especially considering their recent string of mixed results. Historical head-to-head clashes indicate potential for a stalemate, supporting a predicted draw.

Independ. Rivadavia unbeaten at home this season
Fluminense has yet to win away in this tournament
Recent head-to-head ended in a draw (0-0)

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Independ. Rivadavia

Strong home recordIndepend. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
2/3 home wins
Weak away recordFluminense
Fluminense have won 0 of their last 3 away matches.
0/3 away wins
Sharper attackFluminense
Fluminense are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game
Tighter defenseFluminense
Fluminense are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.7/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pick✓ Exact score

We picked Independ. Rivadavia at 36% — final result was a draw, Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Fluminense.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Independ. Rivadavia2.57market 39% · model 36%

Draw ✓2.85market 35.1% · model 34%

Fluminense3.08market 32.4% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Independ. Rivadavia have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Fluminense have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Independ. Rivadavia wins

1Draws

0Fluminense wins

0-0Goals

Fluminense

0–0Aug 11, 2026, 10:00 PM

Independ. Rivadavia

Odds comparison

Match winner

Independ. Rivadavia2.57▲best 2.72

Draw2.85▲best 3.05

Fluminense3.08▼best 3.30

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.75▼best 3.10

Under 2.51.42▲best 1.45

Both teams to score

Yes2.15▼best 2.25

No1.64▲best 1.73

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia/Draw1.35▲best 1.40

Independ. Rivadavia/Fluminense1.40▲best 1.44

Draw/Fluminense1.47▼best 1.52

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.62▼best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.43▲best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.52▼best 1.53

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.39▲best 2.40

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Independ. Rivadavia2.56▲ 0.13

Draw2.85

Fluminense3.08▲ 0.01

15 Aug – 18 Aug

Model vs market

Independ. Rivadavia win-0.6pp

AI

36%

Market

36.6%

Draw+1pp

AI

34%

Market

33%

Fluminense win-0.4pp

AI

30%

Market

30.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Independ. Rivadavia	6	5	1	0	+9	16	WWDWW
2	Fluminense	6	2	2	2	0	8	WWDLL

Pre-match comparison

0.8Goals scored per game1.8

1Goals conceded per game0.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

A. Rojas

4.85Yellow cards / game

0.23Red cards / game

0.23Penalties scored / game

Based on 13 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Independ. Rivadavia

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

50%

76-90+'

50%

Fluminense

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

14.3%

46-60'

14.3%

61-75'

14.3%

76-90+'

57.1%

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?+

Our AI model favors Independ. Rivadavia to win, with a 36% probability (Draw 34%, Fluminense 30%).

What time does Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 18, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).