JEF United Chiba vs Machida Zelvia
Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba · Capacity 19,470 · grass
Value found
+12.4% edgeJEF United Chiba win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 17'Yuta Nakayama
- 34'T. Yengi (Mitchell Duke)
- 45+4'T. Tsukui
- 56'Daniel Hall
- 63'Mitchell Duke (Takuma Nishimura)
- 65'T. Matsumura (Daichi Ishikawa)
- 65'M. Himeno (K. Yamura)
- 70'Takuma Nishimura
- 71'T. Taguchi (T. Mae)
- 71'T. Iida (K. Tanaka)
- 81'N. Lavi (H. Shimoda)
- 82'T. Yengi (S. Fujio)
- 82'H. Nakamura (Yuki Soma)
- 83'Indio (Leonardo Rocha)
- 88'Erison
- 88'Yuki Soma (F. Tokumura)
- 88'H. Nakamura (H. Mochizuki)
Lineups
- 0.9
- Goals/game
- 2.1
- 2.0
- Conceded/game
- 0.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Machida Zelvia enters this match in strong form, having won their opening match and the last two encounters against JEF United Chiba. Conversely, JEF United struggles with a poor recent record, losing all five of their last matches and conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game. The numbers favor an away win based on both recent performances and head-to-head history.
- Machida Zelvia has won the last 2 head-to-head matches against JEF United Chiba
- JEF United Chiba has lost their last 5 matches
- Machida Zelvia has an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in their last 10 matches
- JEF United Chiba is currently in a relegation zone after their first match of the season.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Machida Zelvia
- Historical edgeMachida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia have won 2 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.
2/2 H2H wins - Higher league positionMachida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia sit 19 places above JEF United Chiba in the table.
#1 vs #20 - Poor recent formJEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Strong recent formMachida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Machida Zelvia at 50% — final result was Machida Zelvia win, JEF United Chiba 0-4 Machida Zelvia.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (86/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- JEF United Chiba have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Machida Zelvia have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 | WWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
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FC TokyoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win JEF United Chiba vs Machida Zelvia?+
Our AI model favors Machida Zelvia to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 27%, JEF United Chiba 23%).
Where is JEF United Chiba vs Machida Zelvia played?+
The match is played at Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba (capacity 19,470).
What time does JEF United Chiba vs Machida Zelvia kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 10:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).