Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus — Meistriliiga

Meistriliiga· Regular Season - 23

Kalju Nomme

3–1Full-time

Vaprus

WWWWLLGoals 24-62nd in league

WWLLWLGoals 11-157th in league

Home6W 3D 3L(27-12)

Away3W 1D 7L(11-24)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

11'O. Musolitin (M. Orlov)
13'R. Siht (N. Ivanov)
46'R. Vukušić (M. Tambedou)
46'R. Orm (M. Villota)
53'N. Ivanov
53'T. Pajo
56'M. Orlov
58'A. Borolinstsikov (A. Nikolajev)
66'O. Musolitin
66'K. Aloe
66'S. Viidas
74'T. Baptista (F. Jekimov)
74'M. Orlov (Enrique Lotar)
79'S. Viidas (V. Vallik)
79'S. Kapper (K. Kauber)
85'M. Limberg (J. Poder)
85'T. Pajo (A. Korre)
88'A. Nikolajev
90+1'J. Sild

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Kalju NommeVaprus

2.4
Goals/game: 1.1; 0.6
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Kalju Nomme win

65%

Draw

19%

Vaprus win

16%

49.1%BTTS

53.1%Over 2.5

42.7%Kalju Nomme clean sheet

14.2%Vaprus clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests a strong advantage for Kalju Nomme heading into this match, as they are unbeaten in their last five games and scoring at an impressive average of three goals per game. In contrast, Vaprus has struggled recently, with four losses in their last five fixtures and a negative goal difference for the season. Historically, Kalju Nomme has been successful against Vaprus in recent encounters, which adds to the likelihood of a home victory.

Kalju Nomme unbeaten in last 5 matches
Kalju Nomme scoring an average of 3 goals per game over the last 10 matches
Vaprus has lost 4 out of their last 5 matches
Vaprus has a negative goal difference of -10 this season

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

99/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Kalju Nomme

Poor recent formVaprus
Vaprus have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L
Sharper attackKalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme are averaging 2.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.4/game
Tighter defenseKalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded
Historical edgeKalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
6/8 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Kalju Nomme at 65% — final result was Kalju Nomme win, Kalju Nomme 3-1 Vaprus.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (99/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Kalju Nomme ✓1.38market 72.7% · model 65%

Draw4.50market 22.2% · model 19%

Vaprus6.14market 16.3% · model 16%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Kalju Nomme have averaged 2.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Vaprus have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

6Kalju Nomme wins

1Draws

1Vaprus wins

19-8Goals

Kalju Nomme

1–0Oct 5, 2025, 1:30 PM

Vaprus

Kalju Nomme

1–2Aug 10, 2025, 4:00 PM

Vaprus

2–2Jun 27, 2025, 5:00 PM

Kalju Nomme

Vaprus

0–3Mar 1, 2025, 10:30 AM

Kalju Nomme

2–1Nov 9, 2024, 10:30 AM

Vaprus

0–4Sep 15, 2024, 11:30 AM

Kalju Nomme

4–2Jul 3, 2024, 3:00 PM

Vaprus

1–2Mar 30, 2024, 10:30 AM

Kalju Nomme

Odds comparison

Match winner

Kalju Nomme1.38best 1.42

Draw4.50▲best 4.87

Vaprus6.14▲best 6.79

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.44▲best 1.50

Under 2.52.49▼best 2.75

Both teams to score

Yes1.61▼best 1.67

No2.10▲best 2.20

Double chance

Kalju Nomme/Draw1.08▼best 1.12

Kalju Nomme/Vaprus1.14best 1.20

Draw/Vaprus2.68▲best 2.88

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.38best 2.38

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.53best 1.53

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes7.50best 7.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.07best 1.07

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Kalju Nomme1.38▼ 0.01

Draw4.50▼ 0.04

Vaprus6.14▼ 0.14

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Kalju Nomme win-0.4pp

65%

Market

65.4%

Draw-1pp

19%

Market

20%

Vaprus win+1.4pp

16%

Market

14.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.