Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb

UEFA Champions League· 3rd Qualifying Round
DWDLGoals 12-11
DWDWGoals 23-8

Value found

+1.6% edge

Dinamo Zagreb win

1.48AI fair odds
1.50Bookmaker odds
+1.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 11'A. Tolordava
  2. 12'Joris Moutachy
  3. 19'Lukas Kačavenda (Dion Drena Beljo)
  4. 30'Josip Mišić
  5. 33'Ivan Filipović
  6. 35'Mateo Lisica (Ivan Nevistić)
  7. 46'Luka Stojković (Gabriel Vidović)
  8. 46'Matteo Pérez Vinlöf (Bruno Goda)
  9. 46'Renan Oliveira (G. Debeljuh)
  10. 54'Dion Drena Beljo
  11. 56'G. Debeljuh
  12. 58'M. Burba (Ivan Fiolić)
  13. 58'L. Kreković (Leonardo)
  14. 61'Dion Drena Beljo (Fran Topić)
  15. 66'F. Baldassarra (A. Kalik)
  16. 72'Lukas Kačavenda (Niko Galešić)
  17. 80'A. Benchaib (Fabien Ourega)

Lineups

Kauno ŽalgirisDinamo Zagreb
1.2
Goals/game
2.3
1.1
Conceded/game
0.8

AI match analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win
13.21%
Draw
19.13%
Dinamo Zagreb win
67.66%
51.7%BTTS
50.6%Over 2.5
18.3%Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet
36.8%Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet

Predicted score: 0-2

The data suggests a significant advantage for Ontario Reign, given their recent form, which includes scoring an average of 3 goals while conceding only 0.6 per game in their last 10 outings. In contrast, Kauno Žalgiris has struggled defensively, averaging 2.3 goals conceded per game. The statistics favor Ontario Reign to secure a win in this matchup.

  • Ontario Reign averaging 3 goals scored per game in last 10 matches
  • Kauno Žalgiris conceding 2.3 goals per game in last 10 matches
  • Ontario Reign won 4 out of their last 5 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
80/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Dinamo Zagreb

  • Sharper attackDinamo Zagreb

    Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.3/game
  • Strong recent formDinamo Zagreb

    Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.

    3W 2D 0L
  • Tighter defenseDinamo Zagreb

    Dinamo Zagreb are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.8/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • No head-to-head history

    These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Dinamo Zagreb at 67.66% — final result was Dinamo Zagreb win, Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb.

Predicted score was 0-2.

This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Dinamo Zagreb1.50market 66.6% · model 67.66%
Draw4.24market 23.6% · model 19.13%
Kauno Žalgiris5.96market 16.8% · model 13.21%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Kauno Žalgiris have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb have averaged 2.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Kauno Žalgiris5.96best 7.00
Draw4.24best 4.49
Dinamo Zagreb1.50best 1.58

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.78best 1.86
Under 2.52.02best 2.10

Both teams to score

Yes1.87best 1.92
No1.83best 1.87

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris/Draw2.51best 2.75
Kauno Žalgiris/Dinamo Zagreb1.19best 1.24
Draw/Dinamo Zagreb1.12best 1.16

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.73best 1.73
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes6.50best 6.50
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.10best 1.10
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.00best 2.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Kauno Žalgiris5.96 1.19
Draw4.24 0.53
Dinamo Zagreb1.50 0.13
9 Aug11 Aug

Model vs market

Kauno Žalgiris win-2.5pp
AI
13.21%
Market
15.7%
Draw-3pp
AI
19.13%
Market
22.1%
Dinamo Zagreb win+5.4pp
AI
67.66%
Market
62.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.

Pre-match comparison

1.2Goals scored per game2.3
1.1Goals conceded per game0.8

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

D. Massa

5.46Yellow cards / game
0.25Red cards / game
0.18Penalties scored / game

Based on 28 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Kauno Žalgiris

0-15'
100%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Dinamo Zagreb

0-15'
33.3%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
11.1%
46-60'
11.1%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
11.1%

More UEFA Champions League predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb?+

Our AI model favors Dinamo Zagreb to win, with a 67.66% probability (Draw 19.13%, Kauno Žalgiris 13.21%).

What time does Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 11, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).