bet2837
EN

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin

Ekstraklasa· Regular Season - 5
Korona Kielce
1–1Full-time
Motor Lublin
WLDWGoals 17-1011th in league
WLLWGoals 10-1713th in league
Home0W 2D 0L(2-2)
Away0W 2D 1L(4-6)
Exbud Arena

Exbud Arena, Kielce · Capacity 15,550 · grass · Referee: D. Sylwestrzak

Value found

+0.4% edge

Draw

3.57AI fair odds
3.59Bookmaker odds
+0.4%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 11'S. Rubežić
  2. 19'Mariusz Stępiński (M. Remacle)
  3. 28'M. Aiko
  4. 30'K. Czubak (Ivo Rodrigues)

Lineups

Korona Kielce
Motor Lublin
4-3-34-3-3
1
1. Xavier Dziekoński
6
6. Marcel Pięczek
2
2. Ariel Mosor
23
23. S. Rubežić
71
71. W. Długosz
35
35. Kamil Jakubczyk
8
8. M. Remacle
18
18. P. Hellebrand
22
22. Morgan Fassbender
14. Mariusz Stępiński
9
9. Stjepan Davidović
70
70. M. Aiko
10
10. K. Czubak
30
30. Mbaye Ndiaye
8
8. Christopher Simon
2
2. Paskal Meyer
7. Ivo Rodrigues
24
24. Filip Luberecki
39
39. M. Bartoš
18. Bartosz Bereszyński
29
29. Thomas Santos
71
71. Mihai Popa
Jacek ZielinskiCoachMariusz Misiura
Bench (10)
Bench (11)
Korona KielceMotor Lublin
1.7
Goals/game
1.0
1.0
Conceded/game
1.7

AI match analysis

Korona Kielce win
48%
Draw
28%
Motor Lublin win
24%
51.7%BTTS
50.6%Over 2.5
36.8%Korona Kielce clean sheet
18.3%Motor Lublin clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a competitive match between Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin, with both teams having struggled defensively this season. Korona Kielce remains unbeaten in their last five matches, while Motor Lublin has averaged 1.7 goals conceded over the same period. The head-to-head records indicate a closely matched rivalry, contributing to a likely low-scoring draw.

  • Korona Kielce unbeaten in last 5 matches
  • Motor Lublin has conceded an average of 1.7 goals per game in the last 10 matches
  • Last 2 head-to-head encounters resulted in 1 win for each team and 1 draw
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
83/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Korona Kielce

  • Historical edgeKorona Kielce

    Korona Kielce have won 1 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.

    1/2 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackKorona Kielce

    Korona Kielce are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.7/game
  • Tighter defenseKorona Kielce

    Korona Kielce are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded
  • Good recent formKorona Kielce

    Korona Kielce have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 1D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pick✓ Exact score

We picked Korona Kielce at 48% — final result was a draw, Korona Kielce 1-1 Motor Lublin.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (83/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Korona Kielce1.83market 54.5% · model 48%
Draw ✓3.59market 27.9% · model 28%
Motor Lublin3.93market 25.4% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Korona Kielce have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Motor Lublin have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Korona Kielce wins
1Draws
0Motor Lublin wins
2-1Goals
Korona Kielce
1–0Feb 9, 2025, 11:15 AM
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
1–1Aug 4, 2024, 12:45 PM
Korona Kielce

Odds comparison

Match winner

Korona Kielce1.83▼best 1.95
Draw3.59▲best 3.86
Motor Lublin3.93▲best 4.25

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.70▼best 1.74
Under 2.52.10▲best 2.28

Both teams to score

Yes1.63▲best 1.67
No2.15▼best 2.20

Double chance

Korona Kielce/Draw1.22▼best 1.26
Korona Kielce/Motor Lublin1.26best 1.30
Draw/Motor Lublin1.88▲best 1.95

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.17best 1.18
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.83best 2.90
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.38best 1.40
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.63best 4.75

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Korona Kielce1.84▼ 0.09
Draw3.59▲ 0.04
Motor Lublin3.93▲ 0.38
19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Korona Kielce win-2.5pp
AI
48%
Market
50.5%
Draw+2.1pp
AI
28%
Market
25.9%
Motor Lublin win+0.4pp
AI
24%
Market
23.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
11
Korona Kielce
412105DWDL
13
Motor Lublin
5122-25WLLD

Pre-match comparison

1.7Goals scored per game1
1Goals conceded per game1.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak

6.45Yellow cards / game
0.36Red cards / game
0.27Penalties scored / game

Based on 11 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Korona Kielce

0-15'
0%
16-30'
100%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Motor Lublin

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
66.7%

More Ekstraklasa predictions

Ekstraklasa
Aug 28, 2026, 4:00 PM
Wisla Plock
Korona Kielce
12.6933.92%
X3.2029.73%
22.5536.35%
Prediction:Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa
Aug 28, 2026, 6:30 PM
Legia Warszawa
Slask Wroclaw
11.49
X4.24
25.88
Ekstraklasa
Aug 29, 2026, 10:15 AM
Radomiak Radom
Cracovia Krakow
12.92
X3.37
22.27
Ekstraklasa
Aug 29, 2026, 12:45 PM
Motor Lublin
Piast Gliwice
12.32
X3.49
22.77

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?+

Our AI model favors Korona Kielce to win, with a 48% probability (Draw 28%, Motor Lublin 24%).

Where is Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin played?+

The match is played at Exbud Arena, Kielce (capacity 15,550).

What time does Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 12:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).