Lanus vs Independiente

1–3Full-time

WDWLWDGoals 14-86th in league

DLWLLDGoals 9-95th in league

Home3W 4D 1L(9-5)

Away2W 3D 3L(9-11)

Match events

37'L. Millan (S. Montiel)
47'L. Millan
50'A. Wlk (Ramiro Carrera)
61'L. Millan (Maximiliano Meza)
61'M. Perez Curci (David Martínez)
64'E. Salvio (Matías Sepúlveda)
64'A. Wlk (Y. Valois)
69'Ramiro Carrera
77'F. Pena Biafore (L. Besozzi)
77'S. Montiel (M. Abaldo)
77'J. Palais (Maximiliano Gutiérrez)
85'D. Aquino (Nicolás Morgantini)
85'T. Guidara (Nicolás Morgantini)
85'D. Aquino (Benjamin Acosta)
88'Iván Marcone
88'G. Ávalos
89'Benjamin Acosta
90+1'G. Ávalos (Facundo Cruz)
90+4'Maximiliano Gutiérrez (M. Abaldo)
90+5'Rodrigo Rey

Lineups

4-2-3-1

4-1-4-1

M. PellegrinoCoach

G. Quinteros

AI match analysis

Lanus win

44%

Draw

32%

Independiente win

24%

39.1%BTTS

32.3%Over 2.5

42.7%Lanus clean sheet

31.7%Independiente clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests Lanus holds a slight advantage in this matchup, especially given their historical performance against Independiente, remaining unbeaten in their last five meetings. Although both teams are tied on points, Lanus' stronger home form and recent statistics reflect a higher scoring potential compared to Independiente's struggle away from home.

Lanus unbeaten in last 5 home matches against Independiente
Independiente has lost last 2 away games
Lanus has a better recent scoring average at home than Independiente away

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

76/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Lanus

Sharper attackLanus
Lanus are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Good recent formLanus
Lanus have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Weak home recordLanus
Lanus have won 3 of their last 8 home matches.
3/8 home wins
Weak away recordIndependiente
Independiente have won 2 of their last 8 away matches.
2/8 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Lanus at 44% — final result was Independiente win, Lanus 1-3 Independiente.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (76/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Lanus2.09market 47.9% · model 44%

Draw2.95market 34% · model 32%

Independiente ✓3.97market 25.2% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Lanus have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Independiente have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Lanus wins

3Draws

1Independiente wins

8-5Goals

0–2Oct 13, 2025, 12:15 AM

1–1Apr 6, 2025, 6:30 PM

0–2Oct 18, 2024, 10:15 PM

1–1May 27, 2023, 11:30 PM

1–1Aug 13, 2022, 9:00 PM

1–0May 1, 2022, 12:30 AM

0–1Sep 13, 2021, 7:30 PM

0–1Feb 16, 2021, 12:30 AM

Odds comparison

Match winner

Lanus2.09▼best 2.23

Draw2.95▲best 3.05

Independiente3.97▲best 4.33

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.76▲best 2.90

Under 2.51.42best 1.46

Both teams to score

Yes2.23▲best 2.30

No1.59▼best 1.62

Double chance

Lanus/Draw1.23▼best 1.26

Lanus/Independiente1.36▼best 1.40

Draw/Independiente1.70▲best 1.78

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33▼best 1.33

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.13▲best 3.25

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.69▲best 1.73

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.05▼best 2.10

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Lanus2.09▼ 0.14

Draw2.95▲ 0.11

Independiente3.97▲ 0.41

14 Aug – 17 Aug

Model vs market

Lanus win-0.8pp

AI

44%

Market

44.8%

Draw+0.3pp

AI

32%

Market

31.7%

Independiente win+0.5pp

AI

24%

Market

23.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	+3	24	DLWLL
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	+4	24	DWLLW

Pre-match comparison

1.4Goals scored per game0.9

0.8Goals conceded per game0.9

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Lanus

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

25%

76-90+'

75%

Independiente

0-15'

0%

16-30'

100%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

0%

76-90+'

0%

Match statistics

52%Possession48%

1.87Expected goals (xG)1.16

6Shots on target4

21Total shots14

12Shots off target6

3Blocked shots4

14Shots inside the box10

7Shots outside the box4

10Corners5

1Offsides1

18Fouls11

2Yellow cards3

—Red cards—

1Goalkeeper saves5

397Total passes379

309Accurate passes288

78%Pass accuracy76%

Player ratings

1L. MillanIndependiente⚽ 29.0
2Rodrigo ReyIndependiente🟨8.2
3A. WlkLanus⚽ 17.9
4Ramiro CarreraLanus🅰️ 1🟨7.5
5Iván MarconeIndependiente🟨7.3
6Facundo ZabalaIndependiente7.3

Box score

Lanus

11

11E. SalvioM · 64'

6.0

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes13%

Tackles1

Duels15%

23Ramiro CarreraM · 90'

🅰️ 1🟨7.5

More stats

Shots1/3 on target

Passes19%

Tackles4

Duels61%

24

24C. Izquierdoz (C)D · 90'

7.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes41%

Tackles2

Duels71%

35

35Ronaldo De JesusD · 90'

6.2

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes41%

Tackles2

Duels44%

26

26Nahuel LosadaG · 90'

5.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes19%

Tackles—

Duels—

33

33T. GuidaraD · 84'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes25%

Tackles4

Duels73%

6

6Sasha MarcichD · 90'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes24%

Tackles3

Duels64%

30

30A. CardozoM · 90'

6.9

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes49%

Tackles1

Duels57%

5

5F. Pena BiaforeM · 77'

7.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes34%

Tackles—

Duels42%

25

25D. AquinoM · 85'

6.7

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes26%

Tackles4

Duels33%

20

20A. WlkF · 64'

⚽ 17.9

More stats

Shots2/6 on target

Passes9%

Tackles1

Duels50%

Bench (12)

13

13J. CanaleD

—

4

4G. PerezD

—

16Matías SepúlvedaM · 26'

6.6

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes3%

Tackles1

Duels63%

1

1Franco PetroliG

—

3

3Nicolás MorgantiniD · 12'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels100%

27

27Facundo SánchezD

—

39

39T. LaplaceM

—

8

8F. N. WatsonM

—

77

77L. BesozziF · 13'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels0%

19

19Y. ValoisF · 26'

6.9

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels0%

38

38Benjamin AcostaF · 11'

🟨6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels0%

40

40Tomás LópezD

—

Independiente

9

9G. ÁvalosF · 89'

🟨6.9

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes13%

Tackles—

Duels61%

7

7S. MontielM · 77'

🅰️ 17.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes16%

Tackles—

Duels50%

16M. Perez CurciM · 61'

6.2

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes17%

Tackles—

Duels22%

14L. MillanM · 61'

⚽ 29.0

More stats

Shots2/2 on target

Passes28%

Tackles2

Duels71%

26Kevin LomónacoD · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes41%

Tackles1

Duels45%

23Iván Marcone (C)M · 90'

🟨7.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes31%

Tackles6

Duels77%

33Rodrigo ReyG · 90'

🟨8.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles—

Duels100%

4Santiago AriasD · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes28%

Tackles2

Duels60%

22Facundo ZabalaD · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes24%

Tackles6

Duels69%

35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes32%

Tackles2

Duels43%

24J. PalaisM · 77'

6.2

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes15%

Tackles2

Duels29%

Bench (12)

19M. AbaldoF · 13'

🅰️ 16.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles—

Duels33%

8Maximiliano MezaF · 29'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels20%

10

10L. CabralM

—

28Maximiliano GutiérrezF · 13'

⚽ 17.2

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes4%

Tackles—

Duels0%

77Santiago MeleG

—

21Fernando ClosterD

—

32David MartínezM · 29'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes7%

Tackles1

Duels50%

34Felipe TemponeF

—

20Facundo CruzM · 1'

—

39Ramiro MartinoD

—

40Joshua VelárdezD

—

25Horacio JuncoF

—

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