Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W
Michelob Ultra Arena
Value found
+63.4% edgeLas Vegas Aces W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 168 total points vs the market's 183 line — leans under by 15 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 29 | 16 | 23 | 87 | |
| 23 | 25 | 26 | 18 | 92 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 95-73
The data suggests a strong advantage for the Las Vegas Aces W, who have a 90% home win rate this season and have averaged 90 points scored in their recent games. In contrast, the Minnesota Lynx W, with a 55% away win rate, have struggled against the Aces historically, losing 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matchups. As a result, the Aces appear poised for a commanding victory.
- Las Vegas Aces W have a 90% home win rate this season.
- Las Vegas Aces W have won 8 of their last 10 games, averaging 90 points scored.
- Minnesota Lynx W have a lower away win rate of 55% this season.
- In their last 5 head-to-head meetings, the Aces won 3 games convincingly, showcasing their dominance.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W
- Sharper attackLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W are averaging 89.8 points scored per game over their recent matches.
89.8/game - Historical edgeMinnesota Lynx W
Minnesota Lynx W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Good recent formMinnesota Lynx W
Minnesota Lynx W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 78% — final result was Minnesota Lynx W win, Las Vegas Aces W 87-92 Minnesota Lynx W.
Predicted score was 95-73.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (59/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Minnesota Lynx W have averaged 81.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Minnesota Lynx W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Las Vegas Aces W | Minnesota Lynx W |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 2.16▲ | 1.71▼ |
| +0.5 | 2.16▲ | 1.71▼ |
| +1 | 1.98▲ | 1.79▼ |
| +1.5 | 1.93▲ | 1.85▼ |
| +2 | 1.84▲ | 1.93▼ |
| +2.5 | 1.79▲ | 1.95▼ |
| +3 | 1.73▲ | 2.03▼ |
| +3.5 | 1.69▲ | 2.09▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | 1.73▼ | 2.03▲ |
| 181.5 | 1.76▼ | 1.99▲ |
| 182 | 1.79▼ | 1.97▲ |
| 182.5 | 1.84▼ | 1.91▲ |
| 183 | 1.88▼ | 1.88▲ |
| 183.5 | 1.92▲ | 1.84 |
| 184 | 1.94▼ | 1.80▲ |
| 184.5 | 1.99▲ | 1.76▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 7 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 6 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 9 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 11 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 12 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 13 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 15 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 5 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+
Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 78% probability (Minnesota Lynx W 22%).
What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 16, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+
Las Vegas Aces W: 19-29-16-23. Minnesota Lynx W: 23-25-26-18. Final: 87-92.

