Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W

NBA W
LWWWPts 898-8223rd in Overall Standings · 26-13
WWWLPts 811-8001st in Overall Standings · 31-7
Home17W 3L(1773-1572)
Away13W 7L(1702-1597)

Michelob Ultra Arena

Value found

+63.4% edge

Las Vegas Aces W win

1.28AI fair odds
2.09Bookmaker odds
+63.4%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 168 total points vs the market's 183 line — leans under by 15 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Las Vegas Aces W
1929162387
Minnesota Lynx W
2325261892

AI match analysis

Las Vegas Aces W win
78%
Minnesota Lynx W win
22%

Predicted score: 95-73

The data suggests a strong advantage for the Las Vegas Aces W, who have a 90% home win rate this season and have averaged 90 points scored in their recent games. In contrast, the Minnesota Lynx W, with a 55% away win rate, have struggled against the Aces historically, losing 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matchups. As a result, the Aces appear poised for a commanding victory.

  • Las Vegas Aces W have a 90% home win rate this season.
  • Las Vegas Aces W have won 8 of their last 10 games, averaging 90 points scored.
  • Minnesota Lynx W have a lower away win rate of 55% this season.
  • In their last 5 head-to-head meetings, the Aces won 3 games convincingly, showcasing their dominance.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
59/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W

  • Sharper attackLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W are averaging 89.8 points scored per game over their recent matches.

    89.8/game
  • Historical edgeMinnesota Lynx W

    Minnesota Lynx W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins
  • Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formMinnesota Lynx W

    Minnesota Lynx W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 78% — final result was Minnesota Lynx W win, Las Vegas Aces W 87-92 Minnesota Lynx W.

Predicted score was 95-73.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (59/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Minnesota Lynx W1.74market 57.4% · model 22%
Las Vegas Aces W2.09market 47.7% · model 78%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Minnesota Lynx W have averaged 81.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Minnesota Lynx W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Las Vegas Aces W2.09best 2.19AI 78%
Minnesota Lynx W1.74best 1.90AI 22%

Point spread

LineLas Vegas Aces WMinnesota Lynx W
-0.52.161.71
+0.52.161.71
+11.981.79
+1.51.931.85
+21.841.93
+2.51.791.95
+31.732.03
+3.51.692.09

Total points

LineOverUnder
1811.732.03
181.51.761.99
1821.791.97
182.51.841.91
1831.881.88
183.51.921.84
1841.941.80
184.51.991.76

Double chance

Draw/Away1.53
Home/Draw1.96

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Las Vegas Aces W2.10 0.08
Minnesota Lynx W1.74 0.06
15 Aug15 Aug

Model vs market

Las Vegas Aces W win+32.6pp
AI
78%
Market
45.4%
Minnesota Lynx W win-32.6pp
AI
22%
Market
54.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Las Vegas Aces W wins
4Minnesota Lynx W wins
369-470Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

89.3Points scored per game84.1
81.8Points allowed per game79.3
48.1%Field goal %49.5%
36.9%3-point %39.3%
83.2%Free throw %80.8%
29.6Rebounds per game33.7
20.5Assists per game22.7
11.3Turnovers per game12.4

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+

Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 78% probability (Minnesota Lynx W 22%).

What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 16, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+

Las Vegas Aces W: 19-29-16-23. Minnesota Lynx W: 23-25-26-18. Final: 87-92.