Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W
Michelob Ultra Arena
Value found
+5.3% edgeLas Vegas Aces W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 163 total points vs the market's 170.5 line — leans under by 7.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 86 | |
| 19 | 22 | 19 | 16 | 76 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 90-73
Data suggests a strong performance from the Las Vegas Aces W, who have won their last five matches and have a high scoring average of 87.8 points. In contrast, the Washington Mystics W are struggling, having lost their last five games while averaging only 69.1 points scored. The head-to-head record also leans in favor of the Aces, who have emerged victorious in four of the last five encounters.
- Las Vegas Aces W have won their last 5 matches
- Washington Mystics W are on a 5-match losing streak
- Las Vegas Aces W have an average of 87.8 points scored in their last 10 matches
- Washington Mystics W concede an average of 83.5 points in their last 10 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W
- Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Good recent formWashington Mystics W
Washington Mystics W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Historical edgeLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 76% — final result was Las Vegas Aces W win, Las Vegas Aces W 86-76 Washington Mystics W.
Predicted score was 90-73.
This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Washington Mystics W have averaged 83.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Washington Mystics W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Las Vegas Aces W | Washington Mystics W |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 2.06▲ | 1.71▼ |
| -7 | 2.05▲ | 1.73▼ |
| -6.5 | 1.94▲ | 1.80▼ |
| -6 | 1.91▲ | 1.85▼ |
| -5.5 | 1.82▲ | 1.95▼ |
| -5 | 1.78▲ | 1.99▼ |
| -4.5 | 1.70▲ | 2.08▼ |
| -4 | 1.66▲ | 2.15▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 169 | 1.75▼ | 2.01▲ |
| 169.5 | 1.77▼ | 1.97▲ |
| 170 | 1.82▼ | 1.93▲ |
| 170.5 | 1.87▼ | 1.88▲ |
| 171 | 1.93▼ | 1.82▲ |
| 171.5 | 1.94▼ | 1.81▲ |
| 172 | 2.03▼ | 1.75▲ |
| 172.5 | 2.03▼ | 1.72▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
Las Vegas Aces W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Wilson | 34:42 | 26 | 13 | 2 | 9/15 | 1/3 | 5/5 |
| J. Young | 32:17 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 3/8 | 4/9 | 7/7 |
| C. Gray | 35:19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 3/7 | 2/6 | 0/0 |
| N. Smith | 30:03 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 5/10 | 0/0 | 1/2 |
| S. Talbot | 07:25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Bench (4)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Latson | 10:03 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
| J. Loyd | 22:32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2/3 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
| M. Yamamoto | 13:25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 |
| B. Turner | 14:15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Washington Mystics W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Austin | 30:18 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 8/19 | 0/2 | 4/4 |
| S. Citron | 33:07 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 6/11 | 1/4 | 4/4 |
| K. Iriafen | 34:12 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 6/11 | 0/0 | 3/8 |
| M. Onyenwere | 24:58 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 2/2 |
| G. Amoore | 20:07 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
Bench (6)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Laney | 14:27 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 0/0 |
| A. Dugalic | 01:05 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
| C. McMahon | 21:21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 |
| L. Betts | 14:10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| Florez Alicia | 05:25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| C. Prosper | 00:51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 7 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 6 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 9 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 11 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 12 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 13 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 15 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 5 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W?+
Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 76% probability (Washington Mystics W 24%).
What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 12, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W?+
Las Vegas Aces W: 22-19-22-23. Washington Mystics W: 19-22-19-16. Final: 86-76.

