Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W

NBA W
LWWWPts 898-8223rd in Overall Standings · 26-13
WWWLPts 836-8354th in Eastern Conference · 22-15
Home17W 3L(1773-1572)
Away6W 14L(1540-1683)

Michelob Ultra Arena

Value found

+5.3% edge

Las Vegas Aces W win

1.32AI fair odds
1.39Bookmaker odds
+5.3%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 163 total points vs the market's 170.5 line — leans under by 7.5 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Las Vegas Aces W
2219222386
Washington Mystics W
1922191676

AI match analysis

Las Vegas Aces W win
76%
Washington Mystics W win
24%

Predicted score: 90-73

Data suggests a strong performance from the Las Vegas Aces W, who have won their last five matches and have a high scoring average of 87.8 points. In contrast, the Washington Mystics W are struggling, having lost their last five games while averaging only 69.1 points scored. The head-to-head record also leans in favor of the Aces, who have emerged victorious in four of the last five encounters.

  • Las Vegas Aces W have won their last 5 matches
  • Washington Mystics W are on a 5-match losing streak
  • Las Vegas Aces W have an average of 87.8 points scored in their last 10 matches
  • Washington Mystics W concede an average of 83.5 points in their last 10 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
80/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W

  • Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formWashington Mystics W

    Washington Mystics W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Historical edgeLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 76% — final result was Las Vegas Aces W win, Las Vegas Aces W 86-76 Washington Mystics W.

Predicted score was 90-73.

This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Las Vegas Aces W1.39market 72.2% · model 76%
Washington Mystics W2.99market 33.4% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Washington Mystics W have averaged 83.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Washington Mystics W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Las Vegas Aces W1.39best 1.45AI 76%
Washington Mystics W2.99best 3.20AI 24%

Point spread

LineLas Vegas Aces WWashington Mystics W
-7.52.061.71
-72.051.73
-6.51.941.80
-61.911.85
-5.51.821.95
-51.781.99
-4.51.702.08
-41.662.15

Total points

LineOverUnder
1691.752.01
169.51.771.97
1701.821.93
170.51.871.88
1711.931.82
171.51.941.81
1722.031.75
172.52.031.72

Double chance

Draw/Away2.56
Home/Draw1.32

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Las Vegas Aces W1.39 0.10
Washington Mystics W2.99 0.71
11 Aug11 Aug

Model vs market

Las Vegas Aces W win+7.7pp
AI
76%
Market
68.3%
Washington Mystics W win-7.7pp
AI
24%
Market
31.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Box score

Las Vegas Aces W

PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
A. Wilson34:42261329/151/35/5
J. Young32:1725283/84/97/7
C. Gray35:1912253/72/60/0
N. Smith30:03111105/100/01/2
S. Talbot07:250000/00/00/0
Bench (4)
PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
T. Latson10:035121/31/10/0
J. Loyd22:324022/30/20/0
M. Yamamoto13:253010/01/20/0
B. Turner14:150100/10/00/0

Washington Mystics W

PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
S. Austin30:1820838/190/24/4
S. Citron33:0719726/111/44/4
K. Iriafen34:12151316/110/03/8
M. Onyenwere24:582320/00/32/2
G. Amoore20:070040/10/20/0
Bench (6)
PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
B. Laney14:276220/02/40/0
A. Dugalic01:055101/11/10/0
C. McMahon21:215231/41/20/0
L. Betts14:104412/20/00/0
Florez Alicia05:250120/10/00/0
C. Prosper00:510000/00/00/0

Match statistics

49%Field goal %48%
39%3-point %28%
93%Free throw %72%
30Rebounds41
20Assists20
9Steals5
5Blocks2
8Turnovers16
Personal fouls

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Las Vegas Aces W wins
2Washington Mystics W wins
400-393Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

89.3Points scored per game77.8
81.8Points allowed per game84.1
48.1%Field goal %48%
36.9%3-point %33.9%
83.2%Free throw %73.9%
29.6Rebounds per game34.2
20.5Assists per game20.4
11.3Turnovers per game15.2

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W?+

Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 76% probability (Washington Mystics W 24%).

What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 12, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Washington Mystics W?+

Las Vegas Aces W: 22-19-22-23. Washington Mystics W: 19-22-19-16. Final: 86-76.