Lincoln vs Portsmouth

Championship· Regular Season - 2
Lincoln
13Full-time
Portsmouth
WWLWGoals 22-1122nd in league
WDLLGoals 14-1610th in league
Home0W 0D 1L(1-3)
Away1W 0D 0L(3-1)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 7'Ryan Kavuma-McQueen (Abu Kamara)
  2. 16'Adrian Segecic
  3. 32'Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
  4. 34'Freddie Draper
  5. 55'Tendayi Darikwa (Andrei Coubiș)
  6. 55'R. Shein
  7. 58'Ryan Kavuma-McQueen (J. Murphy)
  8. 58'R. Shein (Ebou Adams)
  9. 66'Ivan Varfolomeev (T. Bayliss)
  10. 66'Dom Jefferies (Robert Street)
  11. 68'T. Bayliss
  12. 69'Ebou Adams
  13. 71'Tom Hamer
  14. 75'B. House (Mason Melia)
  15. 75'Freddie Draper (Tanto Olaofe)
  16. 77'J. Murphy (Marko Milovanović)
  17. 86'Abu Kamara (Luke Brooke-Smith)
  18. 86'M. Pack (J. Knight)

Lineups

LincolnPortsmouth
2.2
Goals/game
1.4
1.1
Conceded/game
1.6

AI match analysis

Lincoln win
41%
Draw
28%
Portsmouth win
31%
60.7%BTTS
61%Over 2.5
28.7%Lincoln clean sheet
15%Portsmouth clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests a competitive match, with Lincoln's recent form showing a strong attack, averaging 2.1 goals scored in their last 10 matches. However, Portsmouth's defensive challenges, having conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their recent games, could imply vulnerabilities. Historical head-to-head results favor Portsmouth slightly, having not lost to Lincoln in their last 5 meetings despite recent poor form. Overall, Lincoln is favored to edge this encounter with a predicted score of 2-1.

  • Lincoln has won 4 of their last 5 matches, demonstrating strong scoring ability.
  • Portsmouth has lost 4 out of their last 5 matches, indicating struggles defensively.
  • Historically, Lincoln has not beaten Portsmouth in their last 5 encounters.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
75/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Lincoln

  • Good recent formLincoln

    Lincoln have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Poor recent formPortsmouth

    Portsmouth have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 1D 3L
  • Historical edgePortsmouth

    Portsmouth have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    5/8 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackLincoln

    Lincoln are averaging 2.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.2/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Lincoln at 41% — final result was Portsmouth win, Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (75/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Lincoln2.34market 42.8% · model 41%
Portsmouth2.99market 33.5% · model 31%
Draw3.28market 30.5% · model 28%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Lincoln have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Portsmouth have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Lincoln wins
2Draws
5Portsmouth wins
5-13Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Lincoln2.34best 2.48
Draw3.28best 3.42
Portsmouth2.99best 3.17

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.99best 2.07
Under 2.51.80best 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes1.75best 1.80
No1.99best 2.05

Double chance

Lincoln/Draw1.36best 1.42
Lincoln/Portsmouth1.31best 1.33
Draw/Portsmouth1.57best 1.62

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.35best 1.36
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.55best 3.75
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.27best 1.28
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.05best 3.10

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Lincoln2.34 0.09
Draw3.28 0.03
Portsmouth2.99 0.25
19 Aug22 Aug

Model vs market

Lincoln win+0.9pp
AI
41%
Market
40.1%
Draw-0.6pp
AI
28%
Market
28.6%
Portsmouth win-0.3pp
AI
31%
Market
31.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
22
Lincoln
2002-30LL
10
Portsmouth
210103WL

Pre-match comparison

2.2Goals scored per game1.4
1.1Goals conceded per game1.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

Tony Harrington

3Yellow cards / game
0.11Red cards / game
0.28Penalties scored / game

Based on 18 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Lincoln

0-15'
100%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Portsmouth

0-15'
100%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Match statistics

39%Possession61%
2.29Expected goals (xG)1.15
5Shots on target7
15Total shots13
6Shots off target2
4Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box8
4Shots outside the box5
8Corners3
9Offsides2
17Fouls15
3Yellow cards1
Red cards
4Goalkeeper saves4
219Total passes369
140Accurate passes271
64%Pass accuracy73%

Player ratings

Box score

Lincoln

25Deji ElereweD · 90'
6.0
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes18%
Tackles
Duels43%
More stats
Shots on target
Passes6%
Tackles1
Duels50%
22Tom HamerD · 90'
🟨6.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes11%
Tackles1
Duels63%
17.0
More stats
Shots1/3 on target
Passes12%
Tackles1
Duels13%
14
14C. McGrandlesM · 90'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes11%
Tackles6
Duels53%
3Adam ReachD · 90'
6.2
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes18%
Tackles
Duels25%
18
18B. HouseM · 75'
6.9
More stats
Shots2/3 on target
Passes8%
Tackles3
Duels56%
34Freddie DraperF · 75'
🟨5.9
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes4%
Tackles
Duels18%
7.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes17%
Tackles
Duels100%
16Dom JefferiesM · 66'
6.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes4%
Tackles
Duels50%
6.2
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes13%
Tackles
Duels20%
Bench (9)
19Tanto OlaofeF · 15'
6.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes3%
Tackles
Duels
8
8T. BaylissM · 24'
🟨6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes6%
Tackles1
Duels50%
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes8%
Tackles2
Duels70%
17Robert StreetF · 24'
6.7
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes1%
Tackles1
Duels100%
10Mason MeliaF · 15'
6.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes
Tackles
Duels25%

Portsmouth

19
19R. SheinM · 58'
🟨6.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes12%
Tackles2
Duels38%
9
9C. BishopF · 90'
6.0
More stats
Shots3/3 on target
Passes13%
Tackles1
Duels33%
6
7.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes32%
Tackles1
Duels67%
7
7M. Pack (C)M · 86'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes28%
Tackles2
Duels60%
11Abu KamaraM · 86'
🅰️ 17.9
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes18%
Tackles1
Duels75%
22
22Z. SwansonD · 90'
6.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes35%
Tackles1
Duels50%
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes29%
Tackles1
Duels60%
1
1N. SchmidG · 90'
7.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes23%
Tackles
Duels100%
24
24T. DevlinD · 90'
7.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes35%
Tackles3
Duels78%
17.7
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes7%
Tackles1
Duels33%
10Adrian SegecicM · 90'
17.5
More stats
Shots2/2 on target
Passes13%
Tackles
Duels50%
Bench (9)
23
23J. MurphyM · 19'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes1%
Tackles
Duels60%
6.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes2%
Tackles2
Duels44%
4
4J. KnightD · 10'
6.6
38Ebou AdamsM · 32'
18.0
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes22%
Tackles2
Duels50%
27
6.6
More stats
Shots on target
Passes1%
Tackles
Duels100%

More Championship predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Lincoln vs Portsmouth?+

Our AI model favors Lincoln to win, with a 41% probability (Draw 28%, Portsmouth 31%).

What time does Lincoln vs Portsmouth kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 11:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).