Lommel United vs Charleroi
Value found
+16.2% edgeLommel United win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 46'Isaiah Dada-Mascoll (Juho Talvitie)
- 46'H. Oware (S. Adewoye)
- 58'Adama Bojang (Antoine Colassin)
- 58'S. Appuah (Sverre Halseth Nypan)
- 63'Amine Boukamir
- 71'M. Sow (N. Solheid)
- 71'Y. Khalifi (Freddy Mbemba)
- 71'Patrick Pflücke (Isaac Ismaël Cissé)
- 85'T. Reyners (Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri)
- 85'R. Seuntjens (Z. Vancsa)
- 86'Lucas Schoofs
- 2.1
- Goals/game
- 1.5
- 1.1
- Conceded/game
- 0.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Charleroi, currently in better form, is likely to leverage their recent success against Lommel United. With Charleroi averaging 1.5 goals scored per match and a solid defensive record, they have favorable odds against a Lommel side that has struggled to convert recent opportunities. The history of their recent matches and strength in away performance further support a prediction of a narrow win for Charleroi.
- Charleroi won their last match and is in good form.
- Lommel United has drawn their last two matches.
- Charleroi has a stronger scoring average of 1.5 goals per game compared to Lommel's 1.89 last 9 matches.
- Charleroi's defense has allowed only 0.7 goals per match in their last 10 matches.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Charleroi
- Higher league positionCharleroi
Charleroi sit 6 places above Lommel United in the table.
#2 vs #8 - Tighter defenseCharleroi
Charleroi are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded - Strong recent formLommel United
Lommel United are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.
3W 2D 0L - Good recent formCharleroi
Charleroi have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Charleroi at 45% — final result was Charleroi win, Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Lommel United have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Charleroi have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Lommel United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 2 |  Charleroi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
K. van Damme
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Lommel United
Charleroi
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Standard LiegeFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Lommel United vs Charleroi?+
Our AI model favors Charleroi to win, with a 45% probability (Draw 26%, Lommel United 29%).
What time does Lommel United vs Charleroi kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 5:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).