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Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka

J1 League· Regular Season - 3
Nagoya Grampus
3–1Full-time
Gamba Osaka
LLLLGoals 15-2213th in league
WWDWGoals 18-810th in league
Home1W 0D 1L(3-2)
Away0W 1D 1L(2-4)
Toyota Stadium

Toyota Stadium, Toyota · Capacity 45,000 · grass

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 7'Y. Kimura (Ryuji Izumi)
  2. 11'Ryotaro Meshino (R. Yamashita)
  3. 40'Takeru Kishimoto
  4. 43'D. Hümmet
  5. 60'T. Uchida (Y. Nogami)
  6. 63'Ryotaro Meshino (G. Nawata)
  7. 63'A. Uenaka (Eli Adams)
  8. 67'Ryuji Izumi (Mateus)
  9. 78'Tsukasa Morishima (M. Ono)
  10. 78'Katsuhiro Nakayama (Yota Sato)
  11. 78'Yuya Yamagishi (Yuya Asano)
  12. 79'D. Hümmet (N. Nakatsumi)
  13. 83'Yuya Asano
  14. 86'R. Mito (Takashi Usami)
  15. 86'Shuto Abe
  16. 90+7'M. Ono (Yuya Asano)

Lineups

Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
3-4-2-14-2-3-1
35
35. Alexandre Pisano
55
55. Shuhei Tokumoto
15
15. S. Inagaki
70
70. T. Hara
← 78'
27. Katsuhiro Nakayama
31. Tomoki Takamine
← 78'
14. Tsukasa Morishima
← 67'
7. Ryuji Izumi
22
22. Y. Kimura
17
← 60'
17. T. Uchida
← 78'
11. Yuya Yamagishi
23
← 79'
23. D. Hümmet
← 63'
8. Ryotaro Meshino
14
← 63'
14. A. Uenaka
17
17. R. Yamashita
27
← 86'
27. R. Mito
13. Shuto Abe
21. Ryo Hatsuse
67
67. Shogo Sasaki
4. Shinnosuke Nakatani
15. Takeru Kishimoto
18
18. Rui Araki
Mihailo PetrovicCoachTomokazu Myojin
Bench (9)
Bench (9)
Nagoya GrampusGamba Osaka
1.5
Goals/game
1.8
2.2
Conceded/game
0.8

AI match analysis

Nagoya Grampus win
39.21%
Draw
27.28%
Gamba Osaka win
33.51%
59.1%BTTS
61%Over 2.5
13.5%Nagoya Grampus clean sheet
31.7%Gamba Osaka clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Gamba Osaka is better positioned for this match, currently sitting 5th in the league compared to Nagoya Grampus's 18th. With Nagoya losing their last three matches and Gamba boasting a strong average of goals scored away from home, the numbers favor an away victory. Historically, Gamba Osaka has had the upper hand in their recent head-to-head matchups, which may further support their chances of winning.

  • Gamba Osaka ranks 5th in the league while Nagoya Grampus is in 18th place.
  • Nagoya Grampus has lost their last 3 matches and is struggling in recent form.
  • Gamba Osaka shows solid away performance with recent matches averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
  • Historically, Gamba Osaka has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Nagoya Grampus.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
71/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Nagoya Grampus

  • Higher league positionGamba Osaka

    Gamba Osaka sit 3 places above Nagoya Grampus in the table.

    #10 vs #13
  • Poor recent formNagoya Grampus

    Nagoya Grampus have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

    0W 1D 4L
  • Strong recent formGamba Osaka

    Gamba Osaka are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.

    3W 2D 0L
  • Tighter defenseGamba Osaka

    Gamba Osaka are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.8/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Nagoya Grampus at 39.21% — final result was Nagoya Grampus win, Nagoya Grampus 3-1 Gamba Osaka.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Nagoya Grampus ✓2.33market 42.8% · model 39.21%
Gamba Osaka2.87market 34.8% · model 33.51%
Draw3.47market 28.8% · model 27.28%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Nagoya Grampus have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Gamba Osaka have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Nagoya Grampus wins
1Draws
4Gamba Osaka wins
6-9Goals
Nagoya Grampus
2–1May 6, 2026, 5:00 AM
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0–0Feb 15, 2026, 7:00 AM
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
0–2Oct 25, 2025, 5:00 AM
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
2–0Apr 12, 2025, 5:00 AM
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
3–2Oct 23, 2024, 10:00 AM
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
0–1May 11, 2024, 7:00 AM
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0–1Oct 21, 2023, 5:00 AM
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
1–0May 6, 2023, 10:00 AM
Gamba Osaka

Odds comparison

Match winner

Nagoya Grampus2.33▲best 2.42
Draw3.47▲best 3.72
Gamba Osaka2.87▼best 3.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.78▼best 1.85
Under 2.52.00▲best 2.09

Both teams to score

Yes1.61▼best 1.65
No2.16▲best 2.25

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus/Draw1.39▲best 1.45
Nagoya Grampus/Gamba Osaka1.28best 1.30
Draw/Gamba Osaka1.58▼best 1.62

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.50▲best 3.50
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.28▼best 1.28
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.00▲best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22▼best 1.22

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Nagoya Grampus2.33▲ 0.03
Draw3.47▲ 0.05
Gamba Osaka2.87▼ 0.02
19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Nagoya Grampus win-1pp
AI
39.21%
Market
40.2%
Draw+0.2pp
AI
27.28%
Market
27.1%
Gamba Osaka win+0.8pp
AI
33.51%
Market
32.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
13
Nagoya Grampus
310203WLL
10
Gamba Osaka
3111-14LDW

Pre-match comparison

1.5Goals scored per game1.8
2.2Goals conceded per game0.8

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Nagoya Grampus

0-15'
0%
16-30'
50%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
50%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Gamba Osaka

0-15'
25%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
25%
76-90+'
25%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?+

Our AI model favors Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 39.21% probability (Draw 27.28%, Gamba Osaka 33.51%).

Where is Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka played?+

The match is played at Toyota Stadium, Toyota (capacity 45,000).

What time does Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 10:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).