New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles — NFL

NFL· Week 2

New England Patriots

24–21Full-time

Philadelphia Eagles

WWLDWLPoints 225-170

LLLLLLPoints 192-195

Home12W 1D 7L(497-395)

Away13W 0D 7L(459-392)

Gillette Stadium

Value found

+17% edge

New England Patriots win

1.75AI fair odds

2.05Bookmaker odds

+17%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
New England Patriots	0	10	0	14	24
Philadelphia Eagles	0	14	0	7	21

AI match analysis

New England Patriots win

57%

Draw

Philadelphia Eagles win

43%

Predicted score: 24-20

Data suggests the New England Patriots have a stronger recent form, averaging 25.2 points in their last 10 matches compared to the Philadelphia Eagles, who have struggled with scoring, averaging only 18.7 points. Additionally, Philadelphia's three consecutive losses indicate challenges that may impact their performance. Historically, the Patriots have had the edge in head-to-head matchups, winning 3 out of the last 5 meetings.

New England Patriots have averaged 25.2 points scored in their last 10 matches
Philadelphia Eagles have lost their last 3 matches
The last 5 head-to-head encounters show New England Patriots winning 3 times compared to Philadelphia Eagles' 2 wins.

AI ConfidenceLow confidence

48/100

Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New England Patriots

Tighter defenseNew England Patriots
New England Patriots are conceding just 17 points per game over their recent matches.
17/game conceded
Poor recent formPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L
Historical edgeNew England Patriots
New England Patriots have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 57% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked New England Patriots at 57% — final result was New England Patriots win, New England Patriots 24-21 Philadelphia Eagles.

Predicted score was 24-20.

The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (48/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Philadelphia Eagles1.77market 56.4% · model 43%

New England Patriots ✓2.05market 48.7% · model 57%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

New England Patriots have averaged 22.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Philadelphia Eagles have averaged 19.2 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
New England Patriots are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Philadelphia Eagles.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

New England Patriots2.05best 2.12AI 57%

Philadelphia Eagles1.77best 1.81AI 43%

Point spread

Line	New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles
-1.5	1.95	1.79
-1	1.97	1.85
-0.5	1.83	1.89
+0.5	1.77	1.93
+1.5	1.89	1.87
+2	1.90	1.86
+2.5	1.86	1.91
+3	1.77	1.93

Total points

Line	Over	Under
35	1.73	2.00
35.5	1.75	1.95
36	1.80	1.91
36.5	1.89	1.89
37	1.93	1.85
37.5	1.90	1.86
38	1.95	1.82
38.5	1.91	1.79

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

New England Patriots win+10.7pp

57%

Market

46.3%

Philadelphia Eagles win-10.7pp

43%

Market

53.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.