New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
Match events
- 4'Bénie Traoré
- 16'N. Harriel
- 43'Luighi
- 44'J. Lukić
- 45+1'Luighi
- 48'Danley Jean Jacques (C. Sullivan)
- 51'M. Iloski
- 60'Keaton Parks (K. O'Toole)
- 60'J. Shore (M. Carrizo)
- 62'J. Lukić (Jesus Bueno)
- 67'Luighi (Talles Magno)
- 67'Bénie Traoré (Malachi Jones)
- 69'B. Damiani (C. Sullivan)
- 70'Indiana Vassilev (Quinn Sullivan)
- 75'B. Damiani (Quinn Sullivan)
- 78'Max Murray (Raul Gustavo)
- 79'Tayvon Gray
- 80'C. Sullivan (A. Bedoya)
- 86'Kai Wagner
- 90'Malachi Jones
Lineups
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 1.5
- Conceded/game
- 1.1
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The data suggests a competitive matchup as Philadelphia Union struggles in away games with a low win rate this season. New York City FC, despite recent losses, has a solid home record and a favorable head-to-head history. The numbers favor a closely contested game, potentially ending in a draw, given both teams' scoring averages.
- Philadelphia Union has only 1 away win this season
- New York City FC has a strong home record with 4 wins in 10 games
- Recent form shows New York City FC struggling with 3 losses but previously won against Philadelphia
- Historically, New York City FC has the advantage with a better head-to-head record recently.
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Philadelphia Union
- Higher league positionNew York City FC
New York City FC sit 6 places above Philadelphia Union in the table.
#7 vs #13 - Weak home recordNew York City FC
New York City FC have won 4 of their last 11 home matches.
4/11 home wins - Weak away recordPhiladelphia Union
Philadelphia Union have won 2 of their last 11 away matches.
2/11 away wins - Historical edgePhiladelphia Union
Philadelphia Union have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Philadelphia Union at 38% — final result was Philadelphia Union win, New York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia Union.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- New York City FC have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Philadelphia Union
New York City FCPhiladelphia UnionNew York City FCNew York City FCPhiladelphia UnionNew York City FCPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia UnionNew York City FCPhiladelphia UnionNew York City FCNew York City FCPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia UnionNew York City FCOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | New York City FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | +5 | 27 | LLDW |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -7 | 21 | DWWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
S. Demianchuk
Based on 9 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
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CharlotteFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?+
Our AI model favors Philadelphia Union to win, with a 38% probability (Draw 26%, New York City FC 36%).
What time does New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).