New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Value found
+0.9% edgeNew York Yankees win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
No events yet.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-3
Data suggests that the New York Yankees hold a strong advantage with a home win rate of 70%, having recently dominated the Boston Red Sox with a 4-0 record in their last five meetings. The Yankees' recent form, allowing only 3.3 runs per game over their last 10, further enhances their prospects against a Red Sox team that has struggled on the road. Overall, the numbers favor the Yankees to outperform the Red Sox in this matchup.
- New York Yankees have a home win rate of 70% this season.
- New York Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Boston Red Sox.
- Boston Red Sox have only a 45% win rate in away games this season.
- New York Yankees allowed an average of 3.3 runs per game over their last 10 games.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors New York Yankees
- Strong home recordNew York Yankees
New York Yankees have won 14 of their last 20 home matches.
14/20 home wins - Strong away recordBoston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox have won 9 of their last 20 away matches.
9/20 away wins - Tighter defenseNew York Yankees
New York Yankees are conceding just 3.3 runs per game over their recent matches.
3.3/game conceded - Historical edgeNew York Yankees
New York Yankees have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Match trends
- New York Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Boston Red Sox have averaged 5.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New York Yankees are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Boston Red Sox.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 3.99▼ | 1.23▲ |
| -3 | 3.77▲ | 1.24▼ |
| -2.5 | 3.00▲ | 1.36▼ |
| -2 | 2.77▲ | 1.42▼ |
| -1.5 | 2.31▲ | 1.63▼ |
| -1 | 1.91▲ | 1.88▼ |
| +1 | 1.42▲ | 2.82▼ |
| +1.5 | 1.34 | 3.13▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.39▲ | 2.90▼ |
| 6 | 1.44▲ | 2.70▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.59▲ | 2.32▼ |
| 7 | 1.73▲ | 2.07▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.98▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 8 | 2.15▲ | 1.68▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.32▲ | 1.58▼ |
| 9 | 2.80▲ | 1.41▼ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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Arizona DiamondbacksNew York YankeesBoston Red SoxFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox?+
Our AI model favors New York Yankees to win, with a 62% probability (Boston Red Sox 38%).
What time does New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox start?+
First pitch is at Aug 28, 2026, 11:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).