Nippon Ham Fighters vs Fukuoka S. Hawks
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nippon Ham Fighters | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 1 |
 Fukuoka S. Hawks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-6
The data suggests that Fukuoka S. Hawks have been dominant in recent encounters with Nippon Ham Fighters, winning 7 of their last 10 matchups. Additionally, their strong away performance this season, with a 75% win rate, further bolsters their chances. Conversely, Nippon Ham Fighters have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 3.8 runs per game in their last 10, which may impact their home field advantage.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have a 75% away win rate this season.
- Nippon Ham Fighters lost 7 of the last 10 matchups against Fukuoka S. Hawks.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have allowed only 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 games.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fukuoka S. Hawks
- Good recent formNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Good recent formFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Tighter defenseFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are conceding just 3 runs per game over their recent matches.
3/game conceded - Historical edgeFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fukuoka S. Hawks at 55% — final result was Nippon Ham Fighters win, Nippon Ham Fighters 8-7 Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Predicted score was 5-6.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 5.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have averaged 4.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Nippon Ham Fighters are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Nippon Ham Fighters | Fukuoka S. Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.00▲ | 1.34▼ |
| -1 | 2.50 | 1.43 |
| -0.5 | 2.06 | 1.69 |
| +0.5 | 1.92 | 1.78 |
| +1 | 1.71 | 1.97 |
| +1.5 | 1.59▲ | 2.29▼ |
| +2 | 1.43▲ | 2.59▼ |
| +2.5 | 1.36▲ | 2.89▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.35 | 2.83 |
| 6.5 | 1.50 | 2.43 |
| 7 | 1.60 | 2.18 |
| 7.5 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
| 8 | 1.96 | 1.75 |
| 8.5 | 2.16 | 1.63 |
| 9 | 2.44 | 1.49 |
| 9.5 | 2.70 | 1.44 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 | Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 | Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Nippon Ham Fighters vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Our AI model favors Fukuoka S. Hawks to win, with a 55% probability (Nippon Ham Fighters 45%).
What time does Nippon Ham Fighters vs Fukuoka S. Hawks start?+
First pitch is at Aug 19, 2026, 5:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Nippon Ham Fighters vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Nippon Ham Fighters: 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 4, 0, 0. Fukuoka S. Hawks: 0, 0, 0, 4, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0. Final: 8-7.