Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
Match events
- 18'O. Aina
- 26'Goal Disallowed - offside
- 26'Goal Disallowed - offside — Harry Wilson
- 32'Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- 52'Cunha
- 62'D. Ndoye (Chris Wood)
- 66'Harry Wilson (Noah Okafor)
- 74'O. Aina (L. Netz)
- 74'James McAtee (X. Schlager)
- 82'Brenden Aaronson (Sean Longstaff)
- 88'A. Stach
- 90+4'Murillo (A. Kalimuendo)
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 1.6
- 1.5
- Conceded/game
- 0.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Recent form suggests a closely contested matchup, with Nottingham Forest showing resilience at home historically against Leeds. Although Leeds boasts a superior scoring average, their away performance has been inconsistent. The numbers indicate a likelihood of a low-scoring draw, given both teams' current form.
- Nottingham Forest unbeaten in last 5 home matches against Leeds
- Leeds has a better recent scoring average at 1.9 goals per game
- Nottingham Forest has been strong defensively at home recently, conceding only 1.3 goals per game
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Nottingham Forest
- Poor recent formNottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Good recent formLeeds
Leeds have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Sharper attackLeeds
Leeds are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game - Historical edgeNottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Nottingham Forest at 41.02% — final result was Leeds win, Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (76/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Nottingham Forest have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Leeds have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Nottingham Forest
LeedsLeedsNottingham ForestNottingham ForestLeedsLeedsNottingham ForestNottingham ForestLeedsNottingham ForestLeedsLeedsNottingham ForestNottingham ForestLeedsOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 9 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | W |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
R. Jones
Based on 19 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
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Who is likely to win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?+
Our AI model favors Nottingham Forest to win, with a 41.02% probability (Draw 28.64%, Leeds 30.34%).
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Leeds kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).