Ogre United vs FS Jelgava — Virsliga

Virsliga· Regular Season - 27

Ogre United

2–3Full-time

FS Jelgava

LLGoals 2-710th in league

LWDDDLGoals 15-157th in league

Home1W 4D 7L(14-25)

Away3W 5D 5L(15-23)

Value found

+2.3% edge

Ogre United win

3.23AI fair odds

3.30Bookmaker odds

+2.3%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

8'M. Hasek
15'K. Cudars
33'N. Parfjonovs
34'T. Rataj
43'K. Alekseiciks
45+1'M. Kalnins (N. Parfjonovs)
45'M. Marusii
58'M. Kalnins
61'M. Hasek
63'A. Marchuk (R. Ziemelis)
65'T. Rataj (G. Patika)
65'R. Becers (G. Zaleiko)
74'D. Vejkrigers (J. Grinbergs)
74'I. Pulis (J. Fokam)
79'F. Hašek (E. Smaukstelis)
79'M. Pudil (A. Petersons)
85'M. Kalnins (M. Ivulans)
86'M. Hasek (K. Alekseiciks)
88'A. Kangars (G. Zaleiko)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Ogre UnitedFS Jelgava

1.0
Goals/game: 1.5; 3.5
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Ogre United win

31%

Draw

24%

FS Jelgava win

45%

65.5%BTTS

72.3%Over 2.5

8.2%Ogre United clean sheet

28.7%FS Jelgava clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests FS Jelgava is currently in a rough patch but has a slightly better away performance compared to Ogre United's home struggles. Historically, Ogre United has conceded heavily, averaging 3.5 goals against over their last two games, which may favor FS Jelgava in securing a victory. The numbers imply a close contest, but with Jelgava's away potential, they may capitalize on Ogre's recent form.

Ogre United has lost 4 of their last 5 matches including their last 2 outings.
FS Jelgava is winless in their last 5 matches, with only 2 draws to show for it.
Ogre United has a home record of 1 win in 11 matches this season.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

71/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors FS Jelgava

Tighter defenseFS Jelgava
FS Jelgava are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded
Poor recent formOgre United
Ogre United have lost 2 of their last 2 matches.
0W 0D 2L
Sharper attackFS Jelgava
FS Jelgava are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game
Higher league positionFS Jelgava
FS Jelgava sit 3 places above Ogre United in the table.
#7 vs #10

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Limited recent-match sample
Ogre United has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 45% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked FS Jelgava at 45% — final result was FS Jelgava win, Ogre United 2-3 FS Jelgava.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

FS Jelgava ✓1.94market 51.6% · model 45%

Ogre United3.30market 30.3% · model 31%

Draw3.52market 28.4% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Ogre United have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 2 matches.
FS Jelgava have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ogre United3.30▲best 3.85

Draw3.52▲best 3.95

FS Jelgava1.94▼best 2.15

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.67▼best 1.77

Under 2.52.08▲best 2.20

Both teams to score

Yes1.59▼best 1.67

No2.18▲best 2.25

Double chance

Ogre United/Draw1.74▲best 1.91

Ogre United/FS Jelgava1.22▼best 1.29

Draw/FS Jelgava1.24▼best 1.30

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.50best 4.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.30best 1.30

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.40best 3.40

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.17best 1.17

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ogre United3.30▼ 0.31

Draw3.52

FS Jelgava1.94▲ 0.12

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Ogre United win+3.5pp

31%

Market

27.5%

Draw-1.8pp

24%

Market

25.8%

FS Jelgava win-1.8pp

45%

Market

46.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.