Operario-PR vs Vila Nova — Serie B

Serie B· Regular Season - 24

Operario-PR

0–0Full-time

Vila Nova

LLDWLLGoals 10-188th in league

WLDLWWGoals 17-123rd in league

Home6W 4D 3L(17-16)

Away4W 3D 6L(11-14)

Match events

10'Pablo
23'Dudu
34'Everton (Marquinhos Gabriel)
34'Goal Disallowed - handball — Everton
37'Maxwell
45+2'Joao Vieira
69'Maxwell (Vinicius Mingotti)
74'Moraes
75'Hildeberto Pereira (Aylon)
83'Everton (Nathan Camargo)
87'André Luis (Gustavo Puskas)
87'Marquinhos Gabriel (Dodo)
87'Janderson (Emerson Urso)
88'Pablo (Caio Dantas)
88'Ángel Torres (Jose Gervasio Paraíba)

Lineups

Operario-PR

Vila Nova

AI match analysis

Operario-PR win

39%

Draw

32%

Vila Nova win

29%

55.1%BTTS

54.2%Over 2.5

17.4%Operario-PR clean sheet

33.3%Vila Nova clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Vila Nova enters this match with a stronger recent form compared to Operario-PR, who are currently struggling with a winless streak. While both teams have had mixed results away from home, Vila Nova's superior league standing and recent performances, including a substantial win, indicate they may have the edge. Historically, their head-to-head results also favor Vila Nova, enhancing their probability of success in this matchup.

Vila Nova ranked 3rd with 40 points, while Operario-PR is 7th with 35 points
Operario-PR on a 5-match winless streak (LLWLW)
Vila Nova's recent form includes two wins and a strong 6-0 victory
Vila Nova has historically performed well against Operario-PR in their last five encounters, winning three times.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

72/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Operario-PR

Historical edgeVila Nova
Vila Nova have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Sharper attackVila Nova
Vila Nova are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game
Tighter defenseVila Nova
Vila Nova are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Higher league positionVila Nova
Vila Nova sit 5 places above Operario-PR in the table.
#3 vs #8

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Operario-PR at 39% — final result was a draw, Operario-PR 0-0 Vila Nova.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Operario-PR2.28market 43.8% · model 39%

Draw ✓3.04market 32.9% · model 32%

Vila Nova3.25market 30.7% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Operario-PR have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Vila Nova have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Operario-PR wins

3Draws

4Vila Nova wins

7-10Goals

Operario-PR

2–2Nov 2, 2025, 11:30 PM

Vila Nova

0–0Jul 11, 2025, 10:00 PM

Operario-PR

2–3Aug 21, 2024, 12:30 AM

Vila Nova

1–0May 4, 2024, 9:00 PM

Operario-PR

Vila Nova

2–1Sep 29, 2021, 12:30 AM

Operario-PR

1–2Jun 28, 2021, 9:00 PM

Vila Nova

0–0Nov 8, 2019, 11:30 PM

Operario-PR

1–0Aug 9, 2019, 10:15 PM

Vila Nova

Odds comparison

Match winner

Operario-PR2.28▲best 2.44

Draw3.04▼best 3.20

Vila Nova3.25▼best 3.90

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.13▲best 2.20

Under 2.51.67▼best 1.72

Both teams to score

Yes1.83▼best 1.95

No1.86▲best 1.95

Double chance

Operario-PR/Draw1.31▲best 1.38

Operario-PR/Vila Nova1.34best 1.38

Draw/Vila Nova1.59▼best 1.70

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.50▼best 3.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40▼best 1.40

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75▲best 2.75

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28▲best 1.28

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Operario-PR2.28▲ 0.21

Draw3.04▼ 0.27

Vila Nova3.25▼ 0.20

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Operario-PR win-1.8pp

AI

39%

Market

40.8%

Draw+1.4pp

AI

32%

Market

30.6%

Vila Nova win+0.4pp

AI

29%

Market

28.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.