Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
St James Park, Exeter · Referee: R. Mendoza
Match events
- 4'P. Dithejane (David Poreba)
- 44'W. Cartagena (Z. Taifi)
- 44'A. Gomez (Tiago)
- 44'T. Spicer (M. Pasalic)
- 52'David Brekalo (Antoine Griezmann)
- 57'Luis Otavio
- 61'Andrew Gutman (Viktor Radojević)
- 61'David Poreba (R. Lod)
- 62'J. Bamba (Maren Haile-Selassie)
- 64'J. Ellis (Daryl Dike)
- 67'Robin Jansson
- 68'Robert Lewandowski
- 78'Griffin Dorsey (Eduard Atuesta)
- 80'Viktor Radojević
- 83'Robert Lewandowski (S. Rogers)
- 89'S. Rogers
Lineups
- 1.5
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 1.9
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The data suggests a competitive match, but Chicago Fire appears to hold a strong advantage, having won the recent head-to-head encounters. Orlando City SC struggles at home with a recent average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game. With the away team achieving better scoring averages and a positive goal difference, they are statistically favored to secure a victory.
- Chicago Fire won the last 3 encounters against Orlando City SC
- Orlando City SC has a negative goal difference (-17)
- Chicago Fire averaging 2.3 goals scored per match in their last 10 matches
- Orlando City SC's home form includes 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Chicago Fire
- Good recent formChicago Fire
Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Higher league positionChicago Fire
Chicago Fire sit 6 places above Orlando City SC in the table.
#3 vs #9 - Sharper attackChicago Fire
Chicago Fire are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game - Historical edgeOrlando City SC
Orlando City SC have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Chicago Fire at 40% — final result was Chicago Fire win, Orlando City SC 1-2 Chicago Fire.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (70/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Orlando City SC have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chicago Fire have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SCOrlando City SCChicago FireChicago FireOrlando City SCOrlando City SCChicago FireChicago FireOrlando City SCChicago FireOrlando City SCOrlando City SCChicago FireOrlando City SCChicago FireOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Orlando City SC | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -17 | 24 | LDLW |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | +11 | 36 | WWWL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
R. Mendoza
Based on 39 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
More Major League Soccer predictions
Seattle SoundersChicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
CF Montreal
Atlanta United FC
CharlotteFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire?+
Our AI model favors Chicago Fire to win, with a 40% probability (Draw 24%, Orlando City SC 36%).
Where is Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire played?+
The match is played at St James Park, Exeter.
What time does Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 19, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).