Paide vs Nõmme United
Paide linnastaadion, Paide · Capacity 1,000 · grass · Referee: J. Lorenz
Match events
- 25'N. Baranov (M. Lilander)
- 27'K. Kait (M. P. Sohna)
- 30'K. Oostenbrink
- 49'abdouraham badamosi
- 53'K. Kait
- 55'K. Kait (H. Ojamaa)
- 55'A. Surogin (H. Ojamaa)
- 67'K. Laanelaid (I. Krasnov)
- 67'A. Alteberg (S. Geiger)
- 70'I. Krasnov
- 70'abdouraham badamosi (Henri Anier)
- 70'D. Luts (J. Palacios)
- 75'Henri Anier
- 78'B. Chisala (A. Truuvaart)
- 78'K. Matas (A. Kaspar)
- 83'A. Frolov (G. Kabal)
- 88'Z. Beglarishvili
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 0.5
- 1.3
- Conceded/game
- 2.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-0
The data suggests that Paide has a strong edge going into this match, particularly with their solid home performance, where they have won 6 out of 10 games this season. Nõmme United's away form has been poor, highlighting their difficulties in defense, and their recent head-to-head record against Paide further favors the home side.
- Paide has averaged 1.7 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches.
- Nõmme United has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
- Historically, Paide has dominated recent encounters, winning 4 out of the last 4 head-to-head matches.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Paide
- Historical edgePaide
Paide have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
4/4 H2H wins - Sharper attackPaide
Paide are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game - Tighter defensePaide
Paide are conceding just 1.3 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.3/game conceded - Poor recent formNõmme United
Nõmme United have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Paide at 58% — final result was Paide win, Paide 4-1 Nõmme United.
Predicted score was 2-0.
This was a high confidence pick (97/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Paide have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Nõmme United have averaged 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | +8 | 39 | DWLW |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | -17 | 25 | LLLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Paide
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Flora TallinnPaideFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Paide vs Nõmme United?+
Our AI model favors Paide to win, with a 58% probability (Draw 22%, Nõmme United 20%).
Where is Paide vs Nõmme United played?+
The match is played at Paide linnastaadion, Paide (capacity 1,000).
What time does Paide vs Nõmme United kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).