Penafiel vs Sporting CP B
Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel · Capacity 6,500 · grass · Referee: D. Pinto
Match events
- 29'R. Mota (Kaua Oliveira)
- 39'Davo
- 56'C. Moreira
- 65'S. Justo (L. Varela)
- 65'E. Felicissimo (M. Alves)
- 65'G. Silva (M. Almeida)
- 68'Davo (R. Schutte)
- 68'G. Negrao (lano Imbene)
- 71'T. Alloh
- 72'J. Pinto (J. Fuentes)
- 80'M. Sanha (Ivanildo)
- 87'M. Svensson
- 90+1'M. Svensson (N. Martins)
- 90+1'C. Moreira (J. Miguel)
- 1.7
- Goals/game
- 0.6
- 1.7
- Conceded/game
- 0.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The statistics suggest a competitive matchup, with both teams showing distinct recent forms. Penafiel has struggled at home, losing one match already this season and falling in two of their last three home encounters. Conversely, Sporting CP B is coming off two consecutive wins, which could give them an edge, but their head-to-head history indicates Penafiel's ability to perform favorably against them.
- Sporting CP B unbeaten in last 2 matches
- Penafiel has lost 2 of their last 3 home games
- Historically, Penafiel has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Sporting CP B
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Penafiel
- Strong home recordPenafiel
Penafiel have won 1 of their last 2 home matches.
1/2 home wins - Strong away recordSporting CP B
Sporting CP B have won 1 of their last 2 away matches.
1/2 away wins - Historical edgePenafiel
Penafiel have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
5/6 H2H wins - Higher league positionSporting CP B
Sporting CP B sit 1 place above Penafiel in the table.
#6 vs #7
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Penafiel at 37.58% — final result was Penafiel win, Penafiel 2-0 Sporting CP B.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (69/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Penafiel have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Sporting CP B have averaged 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | WDL |
| 6 |  Sporting CP B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Penafiel
Sporting CP B
More Segunda Liga predictions
União de Leiria
Tondela
Portimonense
Leixoes
Academica
Lusitânia Lourosa
Torreense
VizelaFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Penafiel vs Sporting CP B?+
Our AI model favors Penafiel to win, with a 37.58% probability (Draw 28.08%, Sporting CP B 34.34%).
Where is Penafiel vs Sporting CP B played?+
The match is played at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel (capacity 6,500).
What time does Penafiel vs Sporting CP B kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 1:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).