Ponte Preta vs Avai — Serie B

Serie B· Regular Season - 24

Ponte Preta

0–2Full-time

Avai

LWLLDLGoals 7-2320th in league

DDDLWWGoals 15-1016th in league

Home1W 4D 8L(9-21)

Away3W 2D 7L(13-18)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

11'William (Douglas Teixeira)
31'Reynaldo
46'Jean Lucas (Joao Vitor)
51'Lucas Cunha
56'David (Joao Damiao)
60'M. Souza (Juan Rodrigues)
66'Felipe Vizeu
68'Thayllon
71'Thayllon (Léo Chú)
71'Luiz Henrique (Romildo)
75'Julio (Murilo)
81'Douglas Teixeira
84'Felipe Vizeu (Léo Gamalho)
84'Jean Lucas (Wenderson)
90'Wenderson (Léo Chú)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Ponte PretaAvai

0.7
Goals/game: 1.5; 2.3
Conceded/game: 1.0

AI match analysis

Ponte Preta win

18%

Draw

28%

Avai win

54%

48.7%BTTS

51.9%Over 2.5

15%Ponte Preta clean sheet

42.7%Avai clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Avai is significantly favored in this matchup, having won two of their last five matches, including their most recent meeting with Ponte Preta. In contrast, Ponte Preta's recent form shows a streak of losses, coupled with the worst home record in the league. Given these factors, a predicted score of 2-1 in favor of Avai reflects both teams' current standings and recent performances.

Avai won last 3 matches against Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta has the worst home record in Serie B
Avai is currently in better form with 2 consecutive wins

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

88/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Avai

Poor recent formPonte Preta
Ponte Preta have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Good recent formAvai
Avai have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Tighter defenseAvai
Avai are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded
Sharper attackAvai
Avai are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Avai at 54% — final result was Avai win, Ponte Preta 0-2 Avai.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (88/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Avai ✓1.78market 56.2% · model 54%

Draw3.36market 29.8% · model 28%

Ponte Preta4.67market 21.4% · model 18%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Ponte Preta have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Avai have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Ponte Preta wins

4Draws

2Avai wins

7-7Goals

Avai

2–1Nov 22, 2024, 11:00 PM

Ponte Preta

1–0Aug 4, 2024, 7:00 PM

Avai

1–1Oct 5, 2021, 10:00 PM

Ponte Preta

0–0Jul 6, 2021, 10:00 PM

Avai

Ponte Preta

1–2Dec 11, 2020, 10:15 PM

Avai

0–1Sep 11, 2020, 10:15 PM

Ponte Preta

Avai

0–0Nov 24, 2018, 7:00 PM

Ponte Preta

2–2Aug 4, 2018, 10:00 PM

Avai

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ponte Preta4.67▲best 5.40

Draw3.36▲best 3.60

Avai1.78▼best 1.94

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.11▼best 2.20

Under 2.51.68▲best 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes1.93▲best 2.00

No1.77▼best 1.85

Double chance

Ponte Preta/Draw1.97▲best 2.12

Ponte Preta/Avai1.28▼best 1.30

Draw/Avai1.17▼best 1.22

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.62▲best 1.62

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.20▼best 2.20

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.20▼best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.33▲best 4.33

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ponte Preta4.67▲ 1.70

Draw3.36▲ 0.18

Avai1.78▼ 0.58

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Ponte Preta win-1.9pp

18%

Market

19.9%

Draw+0.3pp

28%

Market

27.7%

Avai win+1.7pp

54%

Market

52.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.