Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife — Serie B

Serie B· Regular Season - 22

Ponte Preta

1–1Full-time

Nautico Recife

LWLLLLGoals 6-2420th in league

WWLDWDGoals 14-915th in league

Home1W 4D 8L(9-21)

Away3W 5D 5L(18-19)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

40'Brandao (David)
44'Léo Índio
45+1'B. Borasi
46'Igor Fernandes (Ryan)
46'Léo Índio (P. Nunez)
47'M. L. Diego
54'André
59'Arnaldo
60'Kauan Maranhao (Luiz Claudio)
65'B. Borasi
67'P. Nunez
76'Gustavo Henrique (Wanderson)
77'Juan Rodrigues (Miguel Morais)
79'Arnaldo (Reginaldo Lopes)
82'Brandao (Gustavo Telles)
83'P. Nunez
83'P. Nunez
90+2'Betao
90+3'David
90+3'Gustavo Almeida (Joao Damiao)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Ponte PretaNautico Recife

0.6
Goals/game: 1.4; 2.4
Conceded/game: 0.9

AI match analysis

Ponte Preta win

24%

Draw

28%

Nautico Recife win

48%

44.9%BTTS

49.4%Over 2.5

15%Ponte Preta clean sheet

47.2%Nautico Recife clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests a challenging matchup for Ponte Preta, who are struggling at the bottom of the table with a recent form of five consecutive losses. In contrast, Nautico Recife has shown more resilience, with a recent average of 1.6 goals scored per match, and historical head-to-head results favor them slightly.

Ponte Preta has lost 5 consecutive matches and sits at the bottom of the league.
Nautico Recife has averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last 10 matches, showing decent attacking form.
In their last 5 meetings, Nautico Recife has a slight edge with 3 wins against Ponte Preta.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

83/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Nautico Recife

Poor recent formPonte Preta
Ponte Preta have lost 5 of their last 5 matches.
0W 0D 5L
Sharper attackNautico Recife
Nautico Recife are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Historical edgePonte Preta
Ponte Preta have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Higher league positionNautico Recife
Nautico Recife sit 5 places above Ponte Preta in the table.
#15 vs #20

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Nautico Recife at 48% — final result was a draw, Ponte Preta 1-1 Nautico Recife.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (83/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Nautico Recife1.97market 50.7% · model 48%

Draw ✓3.35market 29.9% · model 28%

Ponte Preta3.76market 26.6% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Ponte Preta have averaged 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Nautico Recife have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Ponte Preta wins

2Draws

2Nautico Recife wins

13-6Goals

Ponte Preta

2–3Oct 16, 2021, 7:00 PM

Nautico Recife

1–1Jul 12, 2021, 11:00 PM

Ponte Preta

2–0Jan 17, 2021, 7:00 PM

Nautico Recife

0–2Oct 12, 2020, 11:00 PM

Ponte Preta

Nautico Recife

1–0Apr 19, 2018, 12:45 AM

Ponte Preta

3–0Apr 12, 2018, 12:45 AM

Nautico Recife

1–1Nov 29, 2014, 6:20 PM

Ponte Preta

2–0Aug 30, 2014, 7:10 PM

Nautico Recife

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ponte Preta3.76▼best 4.00

Draw3.35▼best 3.60

Nautico Recife1.97▲best 2.05

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.01▲best 2.12

Under 2.51.77▼best 1.90

Both teams to score

Yes1.82▲best 1.87

No1.86▼best 1.92

Double chance

Ponte Preta/Draw1.81▼best 1.85

Ponte Preta/Nautico Recife1.27▲best 1.33

Draw/Nautico Recife1.24best 1.29

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.50▼best 2.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.50▲best 1.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22▲best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00▼best 4.00

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ponte Preta3.76▼ 0.17

Draw3.35▼ 0.05

Nautico Recife1.97▲ 0.07

11 Aug – 14 Aug

Model vs market

Ponte Preta win-0.8pp

24%

Market

24.8%

Draw+0.1pp

28%

Market

27.9%

Nautico Recife win+0.7pp

48%

Market

47.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.