Qarabag vs Twente
Value found
+4.5% edgeQarabag win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 22'R. Zerrouki
- 23'Bruno Langa
- 59'Kady Borges (Musa Qurbanlı)
- 59'S. Lobato
- 70'S. Orjasaeter (Marko Pjaca)
- 71'R. Pröpper (L. Vennegoor of Hesselink)
- 71'Musa Qurbanlı (Cebrail Makreckis)
- 72'S. Lobato (Pedro Bicalho)
- 76'Bruno Langa (Dani Bolt)
- 79'Marko Pjaca (Wout Weghorst)
- 86'Kady Borges (Joni Montiel)
- 90+2'Max Bruns (Marko Pjaca)
- 90+4'B. Varkonyi
- 90+5'R. Nijstad (A. Adelgaard)
- 90'Marko Janković
- 91'Daan Rots (T. van den Belt)
- 92'J. Mouaddib
- 94'Wout Weghorst (D. Weidmann)
- 97'D. Weidmann (Mathias Kjølø)
- 107'Marko Janković
- 108'Wout Weghorst
- 110'Wout Weghorst (F. Thorvaldsen)
- 114'Bədavi Huseynov (Bahlul Mustafazada)
- 114'J. Mouaddib (H. Cabrayilzada)
- 115'Y. Taha
- 115'L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 117'Y. Taha
- 117'J. Mouaddib (H. Cabrayilzada)
Lineups
- 1.6
- Goals/game
- 1.7
- 2.6
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests a competitive matchup, with Qarabag having recently edged Twente 1-0 in their last meeting. While Twente has struggled with away form, Qarabag's head-to-head record indicates they can be resilient against their opponents. Overall, a draw appears likely considering both teams' tendencies to concede and their recent scoring averages.
- Qarabag unbeaten in last 5 matches against Twente
- Twente has lost 3 out of their last 5 away matches
- Head-to-head history shows low-scoring encounters
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Twente
- Good recent formQarabag
Qarabag have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formTwente
Twente have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Tighter defenseTwente
Twente are conceding just 1.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game conceded - Historical edgeQarabag
Qarabag have won 1 of the last 3 meetings between these two teams.
1/3 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Twente at 40% — final result was Twente win, Qarabag 1-4 Twente.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (53/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Qarabag have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Twente have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of the last 3 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 1 of the last 3 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
R. Saggi
Based on 18 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Qarabag
Twente
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Qarabag vs Twente?+
Our AI model favors Twente to win, with a 40% probability (Draw 25%, Qarabag 35%).
What time does Qarabag vs Twente kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 27, 2026, 4:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).