Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split
Value found
+9.6% edgeHNK Hajduk Split win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 3'R. Raci (D. de Almeida)
- 12'Goal Under Review
- 12'Goal Disallowed - offside — L. Diaby-Fadiga
- 49'E. Otieno (J. C. Silva)
- 51'M. Ameyaw
- 51'N. Sigur
- 57'E. Otieno (J. C. Silva)
- 60'L. Diaby-Fadiga
- 62'M. Acapandie
- 66'M. Sego (M. Soticek)
- 70'M. Acapandie (D. Melnjak)
- 70'D. de Almeida (A. del Moral)
- 70'A. Sanyang (A. Sutalo)
- 71'K. Struski (V. Kochergin)
- 79'M. Soticek (A. Huram)
- 83'L. Diaby-Fadiga (A. Molnar)
- 83'M. Ameyaw (I. Brusberg)
- 84'P. Makuch (A. Molnar)
- 88'M. Emreli (L. Diaby-Fadiga)
- 89'M. Emreli
- 91'F. Tudor (A. Brorsson)
- 91'M. Sego (M. Livaja)
- 94'R. Pukstas (A. Sutalo)
- 96'D. Maresic (A. Van Hoorenbeeck)
- 106'L. Diaby-Fadiga (O. Kwiatkowski)
Lineups
- 1.7
- Goals/game
- 2.4
- 1.3
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-2
Data suggests a closely contested match between Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split. Raków Częstochowa's scoring average of 1.7 goals contrasts with Hajduk's stronger offensive output of 2.4 goals per game, making the attacking prowess of Hajduk a key factor. With both teams scoring evenly in their most recent head-to-head and the defenses allowing similar goals, a draw appears plausible.
- Raków Częstochowa has scored 1.7 goals per game in their last 10 matches
- HNK Hajduk Split has an average of 2.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches
- The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw, indicating a balanced matchup
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Raków Częstochowa
- Strong recent formHNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.
3W 2D 0L - Sharper attackHNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split are averaging 2.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.4/game - Tighter defenseHNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Raków Częstochowa at 44% — final result was HNK Hajduk Split win, Raków Częstochowa 2-3 HNK Hajduk Split.
Predicted score was 2-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (65/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Raków Częstochowa have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split have averaged 2.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Aghayev
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Raków Częstochowa
HNK Hajduk Split
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split?+
Our AI model favors Raków Częstochowa to win, with a 44% probability (Draw 26%, HNK Hajduk Split 30%).
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 27, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).