Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer· Regular Season - 20

Real Salt Lake

3–4Full-time

FC Dallas

WWWDLLGoals 16-138th in league

DWWLWLGoals 12-195th in league

Home7W 1D 2L(22-13)

Away6W 2D 4L(20-18)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

17'J. Valiente (Ramiro)
20'Petar Musa (J. Valiente)
37'Nolan Norris
38'Sergi Solans (Diego Luna)
43'S. Moore
45'Petar Musa (J. Valiente)
46'Santiago Moreno (R. Binyamin)
46'Petar Musa (Logan Farrington)
46'Juan Jose Arias (Saba Lobjanidze)
50'M. Guilavogui (Noel Caliskan)
56'Kaick (C. Cappis)
61'Diego Luna
63'S. Spierings (Pablo Ruiz)
64'Diego Luna (Saba Lobjanidze)
69'H. Johansson (S. Ibeagha)
75'DeAndre Yedlin
79'Sergi Solans (Victor Olatunji)
79'M. Guilavogui (Lineker Rodrigues)
84'Bernard Kamungo (S. Sarver)
90+1'R. Binyamin (Ramiro)
90+3'R. Binyamin
90'Pablo Ruiz

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Real Salt LakeFC Dallas

1.6
Goals/game: 1.2; 1.3
Conceded/game: 1.9

AI match analysis

Real Salt Lake win

47.87%

Draw

25.92%

FC Dallas win

26.21%

59%BTTS

57.7%Over 2.5

28.7%Real Salt Lake clean sheet

17.4%FC Dallas clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests a competitive matchup between Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas, with Real Salt Lake benefiting from a solid home record. FC Dallas, while positioned slightly higher in the standings, has shown vulnerabilities in away games, which could favor the hosts. Historical head-to-head results indicate closely matched encounters, further underscoring the potential for a tightly contested match.

Real Salt Lake has a strong home record with 7 wins out of 9 matches this season.
FC Dallas has struggled away, giving up 3 goals in their last away match.
Historically, matches between these teams have been closely contested with no side dominating.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

85/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Real Salt Lake

Strong home recordReal Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake have won 7 of their last 10 home matches.
7/10 home wins
Strong away recordFC Dallas
FC Dallas have won 6 of their last 12 away matches.
6/12 away wins
Historical edgeFC Dallas
FC Dallas have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Poor recent formFC Dallas
FC Dallas have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Real Salt Lake at 47.87% — final result was FC Dallas win, Real Salt Lake 3-4 FC Dallas.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (85/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Real Salt Lake1.99market 50.3% · model 47.87%

FC Dallas ✓3.38market 29.6% · model 26.21%

Draw3.77market 26.5% · model 25.92%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Real Salt Lake have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
FC Dallas have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Real Salt Lake wins

3Draws

4FC Dallas wins

10-14Goals

FC Dallas

1–1May 11, 2025, 12:30 AM

Real Salt Lake

0–1Mar 23, 2025, 1:30 AM

FC Dallas

Real Salt Lake

3–2Sep 19, 2024, 1:30 AM

FC Dallas

3–3May 26, 2024, 12:30 AM

Real Salt Lake

1–3Sep 21, 2023, 1:30 AM

FC Dallas

2–1Apr 16, 2023, 12:30 AM

Real Salt Lake

FC Dallas

1–1Aug 28, 2022, 1:00 AM

Real Salt Lake

0–1Jul 24, 2022, 2:00 AM

FC Dallas

Odds comparison

Match winner

Real Salt Lake1.99▲best 2.06

Draw3.77▼best 3.90

FC Dallas3.38▼best 3.60

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.50▼best 1.54

Under 2.52.51▲best 2.60

Both teams to score

Yes1.44▼best 1.46

No2.59▲best 2.80

Double chance

Real Salt Lake/Draw1.29▲best 1.33

Real Salt Lake/FC Dallas1.24▲best 1.27

Draw/FC Dallas1.79▼best 1.85

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.65▲best 3.75

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.25▼best 1.25

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.63▼best 6.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.12▲best 1.12

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Real Salt Lake1.99▲ 0.14

Draw3.77▼ 0.13

FC Dallas3.38▼ 0.20

17 Aug – 20 Aug

Model vs market

Real Salt Lake win+0.6pp

47.87%

Market

47.3%

Draw+1pp

25.92%

Market

24.9%

FC Dallas win-1.6pp

26.21%

Market

27.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.