Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga

Erovnuli Liga· Regular Season - 21

Samgurali

0–4Full-time

Dinamo Batumi

WDLWWLGoals 19-196th in league

LLWDWWGoals 15-244th in league

Home5W 2D 3L(14-13)

Away4W 4D 4L(17-16)

Value found

+5.4% edge

Samgurali win

2.33AI fair odds

2.45Bookmaker odds

+5.4%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

6'Vinicius Vianna
9'A. Eshetiye
16'V. Paulo (L. Tsulukidze)
21'A. Eshetiye (L. Tsulukidze)
36'L. Tsulukidze (U. Mara)
40'D. Mandricenco (T. Kirkitadze)
46'J. Carlos (Claudio Cebolinha)
46'T. Kirkitadze
46'I. Bidzinashvili (L. Gilmore)
46'Vinicius Vianna (D. Krasovski)
62'U. Mara
63'U. Mara (I. Oulad Omar)
63'D. Mandricenco (A. Mylchenko)
63'I. Oulad Omar (Maurides)
69'T. Gaprindashvili (G. Gogia)
69'I. Siradze (M. Shatirishvili)
73'T. Kirkitadze (G. Kokhreidze)
90'D. Krasovski

Lineups unavailable for this match.

SamguraliDinamo Batumi

1.9
Goals/game: 1.5; 1.9
Conceded/game: 2.4

AI match analysis

Samgurali win

43%

Draw

30%

Dinamo Batumi win

27%

72.2%BTTS

73.9%Over 2.5

18.3%Samgurali clean sheet

11.6%Dinamo Batumi clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that Samgurali has a strong record against Dinamo Batumi, winning four of their last five encounters, including a decisive 4-0 victory in their most recent meeting. Historically, Dinamo Batumi struggles defensively, having conceded 2.7 goals per game over their last ten matches, which could be a significant advantage for Samgurali in this matchup.

Samgurali unbeaten in last 3 home matches against Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi has conceded an average of 2.7 goals in their last 10 matches
Both teams are tied on points, but Samgurali has a superior recent form of WDLWW compared to Dinamo Batumi's DLWWL.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

74/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Samgurali

Strong home recordSamgurali
Samgurali have won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
5/10 home wins
Weak away recordDinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi have won 4 of their last 12 away matches.
4/12 away wins
Sharper attackSamgurali
Samgurali are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.9/game
Tighter defenseSamgurali
Samgurali are conceding just 1.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.9/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 43% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Samgurali at 43% — final result was Dinamo Batumi win, Samgurali 0-4 Dinamo Batumi.

Predicted score was 2-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Samgurali2.45market 40.8% · model 43%

Dinamo Batumi ✓2.54market 39.4% · model 27%

Draw3.24market 30.8% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Samgurali have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Dinamo Batumi have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Samgurali wins

2Draws

3Dinamo Batumi wins

12-8Goals

Samgurali

4–0Nov 30, 2025, 4:00 PM

Dinamo Batumi

1–2Sep 28, 2025, 4:00 PM

Samgurali

3–0May 25, 2025, 1:00 PM

Dinamo Batumi

2–0Apr 14, 2025, 5:00 PM

Samgurali

3–3Oct 27, 2024, 11:00 AM

Dinamo Batumi

0–0Aug 18, 2024, 5:00 PM

Samgurali

0–1May 1, 2024, 12:00 PM

Dinamo Batumi

1–0Mar 11, 2024, 5:00 PM

Samgurali

Odds comparison

Match winner

Samgurali2.45▲best 2.60

Draw3.24▲best 3.40

Dinamo Batumi2.54▼best 2.68

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.80▲best 1.90

Under 2.51.91▼best 2.00

Both teams to score

Yes1.61▲best 1.62

No2.13▼best 2.20

Double chance

Samgurali/Draw1.41▲best 1.50

Samgurali/Dinamo Batumi1.26▼best 1.30

Draw/Dinamo Batumi1.46▼best 1.57

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Samgurali2.45▲ 0.50

Draw3.24▼ 0.16

Dinamo Batumi2.54▼ 0.66

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Samgurali win+6.3pp

43%

Market

36.7%

Draw+2.2pp

30%

Market

27.8%

Dinamo Batumi win-8.5pp

27%

Market

35.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.