San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC
Match events
- 4'Timo Werner
- 10'J. Pereyra (Anthony Markanich)
- 40'Kelvin Yeboah (Kyle Duncan)
- 44'Kelvin Yeboah (O. Gene)
- 46'Jonathan Gonzalez (Ian Harkes)
- 57'Timo Werner (D. Johnson)
- 65'M. Caldeira (Kyle Duncan)
- 66'Niko Tsakiris (N. Fernandez)
- 66'O. Bouda (Paul Marie)
- 67'Niko Tsakiris (Paul Marie)
- 68'O. Bouda (N. Fernandez)
- 76'M. Caldeira (T. Chancalay)
- 76'O. Gene (Nectarios Triantis)
- 78'Vitor Costa (J. Ricketts)
- 82'Kelvin Yeboah (M. Gonzalez)
- 83'Wil Trapp (Carlos Harvey)
- 85'Benjamin Kikanović
- 86'Carlos Harvey
- 86'M. Gonzalez (Carlos Harvey)
- 87'Anthony Markanich (Devin Padelford)
- 1.2
- Goals/game
- 1.4
- 2.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests a competitive matchup between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC, with historical performance favoring the away team. Minnesota has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning four of the last five matches. Despite San Jose's home advantage, their recent form shows troubling inconsistencies, making it likely they may struggle against Minnesota's more stable scoring output.
- Minnesota United FC unbeaten in last 5 head-to-head matches against San Jose Earthquakes
- San Jose Earthquakes have lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Minnesota United FC has a stronger recent scoring average with 1.4 goals over the last 10 matches compared to San Jose's 1.2
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors San Jose Earthquakes
- Historical edgeMinnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionSan Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes sit 6 places above Minnesota United FC in the table.
#4 vs #10 - Tighter defenseMinnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded - Poor recent formSan Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked San Jose Earthquakes at 42% — final result was Minnesota United FC win, San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Minnesota United FC have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Minnesota United FC
San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCMinnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCMinnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | +6 | 33 | LLLD |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 28 | LDDD |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
J. Marrufo
Based on 5 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
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CharlotteFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?+
Our AI model favors San Jose Earthquakes to win, with a 42% probability (Draw 25%, Minnesota United FC 33%).
What time does San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 2:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).