San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City — Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer· Regular Season - 19

San Jose Earthquakes

1–3Full-time

St. Louis City

LWLWLLGoals 12-244th in league

LLWDDWGoals 18-166th in league

Home4W 2D 5L(19-19)

Away3W 4D 4L(12-16)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

8'D. Edelman (Conrad Wallem)
27'S. Becher (Eduard Löwen)
46'N. Tsakiris (Luka Jovanovic)
46'Benjamin Kikanovic (J. Jasinski)
47'Beau Leroux
55'S. Becher (T. Totland)
69'Eduard Löwen (C. Holse)
69'S. Jeong (Alexandru Mățan)
71'O. Bouda (Jack Skahan)
71'Ronaldo Vieira (Ian Harkes)
77'Conrad Wallem
82'R. Roberts
84'T. Totland
89'S. Becher (P. Ault)
89'Conrad Wallem (J. Orozco)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

San Jose EarthquakesSt. Louis City

1.2
Goals/game: 1.8; 2.4
Conceded/game: 1.6

AI match analysis

San Jose Earthquakes win

45%

Draw

24%

St. Louis City win

31%

66.1%BTTS

67.9%Over 2.5

12.2%San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet

24.7%St. Louis City clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The numbers favor St. Louis City given their strong recent form, going unbeaten in their last five matches, while San Jose Earthquakes have struggled, winning only once in their last five outings. Additionally, St. Louis City boasts a dominant record in their recent head-to-head matchups, which indicates a psychological advantage. Based on these trends, a predicted score of 2-1 in favor of St. Louis City seems plausible.

St. Louis City has won 4 of the last 5 encounters against San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes have a negative recent form with 1 win in their last 5 matches
St. Louis City is in good form, unbeaten in their last 5 games
San Jose Earthquakes conceded an average of 2.1 goals per game in their last 10 matches

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

78/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors San Jose Earthquakes

Historical edgeSt. Louis City
St. Louis City have won 6 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
6/6 H2H wins
Poor recent formSan Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Weak home recordSan Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes have won 4 of their last 11 home matches.
4/11 home wins
Weak away recordSt. Louis City
St. Louis City have won 3 of their last 11 away matches.
3/11 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 45% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked San Jose Earthquakes at 45% — final result was St. Louis City win, San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (78/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

San Jose Earthquakes2.09market 47.8% · model 45%

St. Louis City ✓3.06market 32.6% · model 31%

Draw3.83market 26.1% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
St. Louis City have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

0San Jose Earthquakes wins

0Draws

6St. Louis City wins

4-14Goals

San Jose Earthquakes

1–3Sep 21, 2025, 2:30 AM

St. Louis City

2–1May 31, 2025, 6:30 PM

San Jose Earthquakes

1–2Sep 22, 2024, 2:30 AM

St. Louis City

2–0Jul 4, 2024, 12:30 AM

San Jose Earthquakes

1–2Jun 25, 2023, 2:30 AM

St. Louis City

3–0Mar 19, 2023, 12:30 AM

San Jose Earthquakes

Odds comparison

Match winner

San Jose Earthquakes2.09▼best 2.14

Draw3.83▲best 3.96

St. Louis City3.06best 3.25

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.47▼best 1.50

Under 2.52.61▲best 2.72

Both teams to score

Yes1.43▼best 1.45

No2.66▲best 2.80

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes/Draw1.35▼best 1.38

San Jose Earthquakes/St. Louis City1.23▼best 1.26

Draw/St. Louis City1.71▲best 1.77

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.23▼best 1.25

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.83▲best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.13▲best 1.14

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.25▼best 5.50

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

San Jose Earthquakes2.09▲ 0.10

Draw3.82▲ 0.07

St. Louis City3.06▼ 0.22

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

San Jose Earthquakes win+0.1pp

45%

Market

44.9%

Draw-0.5pp

24%

Market

24.5%

St. Louis City win+0.4pp

31%

Market

30.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.