Santos vs Mirassol
Match events
- 19'Joao Schmidt
- 22'Gabriel Knesowitsch
- 24'Neto Moura
- 29'Gabriel Knesowitsch (Oliveira)
- 36'Carlos Eduardo
- 46'Rony (Gabriel Bontempo)
- 61'Joao Schmidt (B. Rollheiser)
- 61'Gustavo (Wallisson)
- 61'Carlos Eduardo (Japa)
- 68'Álvaro Barreal (Neymar)
- 70'Wallisson
- 73'Wallisson
- 76'Igor Formiga
- 76'Álvaro Barreal (Thaciano)
- 78'Bruno Santos (Carlos Eduardo)
- 78'Alesson (Fernandinho)
- 82'Gabriel Barbosa (G. Caballero)
- 83'Igor Vinícius (D. Fernandes)
- 83'Bruno Santos (Carlos Eduardo)
- 83'Alesson (Fernandinho)
- 88'Neymar
Lineups
- 1.6
- Goals/game
- 1.4
- 0.8
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests that Santos is in decent form with three wins in their last five matches, and their home performances have improved, contributing to an average of 1.67 xG. Conversely, Mirassol's struggles away from home (with only 1 win in 10 matches) and their defensive frailty (conceding an average of 1.6 goals) indicate challenges against Santos, who historically have performed better in their recent encounters.
- Santos has won 3 of their last 5 matches, including 2 recent home victories.
- Mirassol has only 1 away win this season and has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game.
- Historically, Santos has a slight edge in head-to-head matchups, with a recent win at home.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Santos
- Poor recent formMirassol
Mirassol have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
0W 2D 3L - Weak home recordSantos
Santos have won 5 of their last 13 home matches.
5/13 home wins - Weak away recordMirassol
Mirassol have won 1 of their last 11 away matches.
1/11 away wins - Tighter defenseSantos
Santos are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Santos at 52% — final result was a draw, Santos 1-1 Mirassol.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (88/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Santos have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Mirassol have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
E. Batista
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Santos
Mirassol
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FluminenseFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Santos vs Mirassol?+
Our AI model favors Santos to win, with a 52% probability (Draw 26%, Mirassol 22%).
What time does Santos vs Mirassol kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).