São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife
Match events
- 40'Arnaldo
- 46'Arnaldo (Reginaldo)
- 54'Lucas Lima
- 62'Léo Índio (Betao)
- 65'Pedrinho (Léo Jabá)
- 66'Pedro Vitor (Hyoran)
- 74'Samuel Felix (P. Nunez)
- 75'Kauan Maranhao (Luiz Claudio)
- 81'Lino (Hugo Sanches)
- 81'Felipe Gonçalves (D. Davi)
- 85'B. Borasi (Wendell)
- 86'Derek (Wendell)
- 90+2'Eduardo (Galdino)
Lineups
- 0.4
- Goals/game
- 1.4
- 1.0
- Conceded/game
- 0.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests that while São Bernardo has a slight home advantage, their recent form is concerning, winning only once in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Nautico Recife comes into this match with an unbeaten run over the same period, hinting at better momentum. The last meeting resulted in a win for Nautico Recife, which adds to their confidence going into this match.
- Nautico Recife unbeaten in last 5 matches
- São Bernardo has lost 3 of their last 5 games
- Recent head-to-head favors Nautico Recife with a 1-0 win
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors São Bernardo
- Historical edgeNautico Recife
Nautico Recife have won 1 of the last 1 meetings between these two teams.
1/1 H2H wins - Sharper attackNautico Recife
Nautico Recife are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game - Poor recent formSão Bernardo
São Bernardo have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Weak home recordSão Bernardo
São Bernardo have won 2 of their last 13 home matches.
2/13 home wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked São Bernardo at 43.51% — final result was a draw, São Bernardo 1-1 Nautico Recife.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (78/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- São Bernardo have averaged 0.4 goals scored per game over their last 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |  São Bernardo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +6 | 32 | DLWL |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | +1 | 31 | WDDD |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 5 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
More Serie B predictions
GoiasSão BernardoNautico Recife
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
CuiabaFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife?+
Our AI model favors São Bernardo to win, with a 43.51% probability (Draw 29.32%, Nautico Recife 27.17%).
What time does São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).