Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Match events
- 5'Tiago Cóser
- 20'Tinga (João Pedro Chermont)
- 41'Pablo Maia
- 43'Pablo Maia (João Victor)
- 57'Tiago Cóser (Breno Lopes)
- 63'João Victor (Artur)
- 63'Newton (Ferreira)
- 66'Thiago Santos (Tissi)
- 68'Lucas Ramon
- 74'Fernando Sobral (Keno)
- 74'S. Gómez (Vini Paulista)
- 74'Pedro Rocha (Keno)
- 74'Pedro Rocha (Paulo Roberto)
- 78'Wendell (Iago)
- 78'Luciano (Ryan Francisco)
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 1.7
- Conceded/game
- 0.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The analysis suggests a competitive match with Sao Paulo struggling in recent form, having not secured a win in their last four outings. Coritiba, while also inconsistent, boasts a solid away defensive record, which may help them limit Sao Paulo's scoring opportunities. Head-to-head history indicates a tendency towards draws, further complicating predictions for a clear winner.
- Sao Paulo has not won in their last 4 matches
- Coritiba has a stronger recent defensive average, conceding only 0.5 goals in their last 10 matches
- Historically, the last 5 matches between the teams have ended in 2 wins for Sao Paulo and 3 draws
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Sao Paulo
- Poor recent formSao Paulo
Sao Paulo have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Strong recent formCoritiba
Coritiba are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L - Tighter defenseCoritiba
Coritiba are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded - Historical edgeSao Paulo
Sao Paulo have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Sao Paulo at 54% — final result was a draw, Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (89/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Sao Paulo have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Coritiba have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 8 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Sao Paulo
CoritibaCoritibaSao PauloSao PauloCoritibaCoritibaSao PauloSao PauloCoritibaCoritibaSao PauloCoritibaSao PauloSao PauloCoritibaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
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FluminenseFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?+
Our AI model favors Sao Paulo to win, with a 54% probability (Draw 27%, Coritiba 19%).
What time does Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).