Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes
Value found
+2.4% edgeOrix Buffaloes win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seibu Lions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 | 11 | 0 |
 Orix Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-3
The data suggests that the Seibu Lions are slightly favored to win, given their 53% home win rate and recent strong performance, winning 7 of their last 10 games. In contrast, the Orix Buffaloes have struggled defensively, allowing 5.5 runs on average in their last 10 games, which could be problematic against a potent Lions lineup.
- Seibu Lions have a 53% home win rate this season.
- Orix Buffaloes have allowed an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 10 games.
- Historically, the Seibu Lions hold a 3-2 win record against the Orix Buffaloes in their last 5 matchups.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Seibu Lions
- Tighter defenseSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions are conceding just 2.8 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.8/game conceded - Historical edgeSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions sit 2 places above Orix Buffaloes in the table.
#2 vs #4 - Good recent formSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Seibu Lions at 55% — final result was Seibu Lions win, Seibu Lions 7-4 Orix Buffaloes.
Predicted score was 4-3.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Seibu Lions have averaged 3.5 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Orix Buffaloes have averaged 2.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Seibu Lions are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Orix Buffaloes.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Seibu Lions | Orix Buffaloes |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.15▼ | 1.32▲ |
| -2 | 2.89▼ | 1.36▲ |
| -1.5 | 2.35▼ | 1.55▲ |
| -1 | 1.89▼ | 1.77▲ |
| -0.5 | 1.63▼ | 2.16▲ |
| +0.5 | 1.56▼ | 2.30▲ |
| +1 | 1.35▼ | 2.79▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.31▼ | 3.11▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.35 | 2.90▼ |
| 5.5 | 1.57▲ | 2.29▼ |
| 6 | 1.67▲ | 2.08▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.85▲ | 1.88▼ |
| 7 | 2.06▲ | 1.67▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.35▲ | 1.53▼ |
| 8 | 2.64▲ | 1.42▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.79 | 1.38 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 | Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 | Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Hanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsYokohama BayStarsChunichi DragonsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsYomiuri GiantsYokohama BayStarsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes?+
Our AI model favors Seibu Lions to win, with a 55% probability (Orix Buffaloes 45%).
What time does Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes start?+
First pitch is at Aug 18, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes?+
Seibu Lions: 0, 0, 0, 6, 1, 0, 0, 0. Orix Buffaloes: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0. Final: 7-4.