Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seibu Lions | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
 Orix Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
Data suggests a close contest between the Seibu Lions and the Orix Buffaloes. The Seibu Lions, maintaining a stronger overall win rate and recent success against the Buffaloes, are projected to edge out a narrow victory.
- Seibu Lions won 7 of their last 10 games, showcasing strong home performance.
- Orix Buffaloes have a negative run differential, allowing 444 runs against this season compared to their 390 runs for.
- Historically, the Seibu Lions have a slight edge over the Orix Buffaloes, winning 3 of the last 5 matchups.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Seibu Lions
- Tighter defenseSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions are conceding just 2.8 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.8/game conceded - Good recent formSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Poor recent formOrix Buffaloes
Orix Buffaloes have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Historical edgeSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 51% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Seibu Lions at 51% — final result was Seibu Lions win, Seibu Lions 3-2 Orix Buffaloes.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Seibu Lions have averaged 3.5 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Orix Buffaloes have averaged 2.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Seibu Lions are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Orix Buffaloes.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Seibu Lions | Orix Buffaloes |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.87▲ | 1.38▼ |
| -1 | 2.29▼ | 1.51▲ |
| -0.5 | 1.84 | 1.85 |
| +0.5 | 1.75 | 1.96 |
| +1 | 1.57 | 2.19 |
| +1.5 | 1.47▲ | 2.57▼ |
| +2 | 1.34 | 3.01▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.29▲ | 3.34▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.48 | 2.56▼ |
| 6 | 1.52▼ | 2.36▲ |
| 6.5 | 1.68 | 2.07 |
| 7 | 1.85▼ | 1.86▲ |
| 7.5 | 2.11▲ | 1.68 |
| 8 | 2.35▼ | 1.54▲ |
| 8.5 | 2.50▼ | 1.48▲ |
| 9 | 2.88▼ | 1.32▲ |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 | Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 | Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Hanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsYokohama BayStarsChunichi DragonsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsYomiuri GiantsYokohama BayStarsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes?+
Our AI model favors Seibu Lions to win, with a 51% probability (Orix Buffaloes 49%).
What time does Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes start?+
First pitch is at Aug 19, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes?+
Seibu Lions: 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2. Orix Buffaloes: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0. Final: 3-2.