Southampton vs Stoke City
Match events
- 8'C. Larin (F. Downes)
- 19'J. Bree
- 26'E. Galbraith (S. Gallagher)
- 38'S. Gallagher
- 50'F. Downes
- 53'Ryan Manning
- 62'E. Galbraith
- 62'G. Hirst (R. Bozenik)
- 70'S. Gallagher (Svante Ingelsson)
- 78'C. Larin (Divin Mubama)
- 78'L. Scienza (Lewis Dobbin)
- 81'D. Soumare (Tomáš Rigo)
- 81'E. Bocat (Maksym Talovierov)
- 82'Maksym Talovierov
- 86'Svante Ingelsson
- 89'Divin Mubama (F. Azaz)
- 90+3'Svante Ingelsson
- 90+3'Svante Ingelsson
- 90+4'Ryan Manning
- 90+5'K. Matsuki (C. Bragg)
- 90+5'F. Azaz (R. Akachukwu)
- 90'T. Fellows (S. Edozie)
Lineups
- 1.6
- Goals/game
- 0.9
- 1.5
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests Southampton is favored due to their superior recent head-to-head record against Stoke City, winning 4 of their last 5 encounters. Additionally, Southampton has demonstrated better scoring capability compared to Stoke, who have struggled offensively with only 0.9 goals per game over their last 10 matches.
- Southampton has a strong historical advantage in recent head-to-head matches, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Stoke City.
- Stoke City has struggled offensively, averaging only 0.9 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches.
- Southampton's recent form shows an ability to score, averaging 1.9 goals per match in their last 10 games.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Southampton
- Poor recent formStoke City
Stoke City have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Sharper attackSouthampton
Southampton are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game - Tighter defenseSouthampton
Southampton are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded - Historical edgeStoke City
Stoke City have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Southampton at 59% — final result was Southampton win, Southampton 3-1 Stoke City.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (97/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Southampton have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Stoke City have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Stoke City
SouthamptonSouthamptonStoke CitySouthamptonStoke CitySouthamptonStoke CityStoke CitySouthamptonSouthamptonStoke CityStoke CitySouthamptonSouthamptonStoke CityOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | -1 | WL |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | LL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
S. Martin
Based on 23 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Southampton
Stoke City
More Championship predictions
Wrexham
Birmingham
WolvesStoke City
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Derby
SwanseaFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Southampton vs Stoke City?+
Our AI model favors Southampton to win, with a 59% probability (Draw 22%, Stoke City 19%).
What time does Southampton vs Stoke City kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).