Stoke City vs Swansea — Championship

Championship· Regular Season - 1

Stoke City

1–2Full-time

Swansea

WLLWLLGoals 9-1721st in league

LDDWLDGoals 13-149th in league

Home0W 0D 1L(1-2)

Away1W 0D 0L(2-1)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

10'E. Bocat (Tomáš Rigo)
23'Joseph Opoku (Z. Vipotnik)
36'Luke Graham
36'Svante Ingelsson
46'B. Lawal (Maksym Talovierov)
53'Filip Lissah
55'Filip Lissah (Josh Key)
65'Moussa Kounfolo Yeo (Eom Ji-Sung)
65'Z. Vipotnik (Adam Idah)
65'E. Just (M. Widell)
66'Adam Idah (Josh Tymon)
70'S. Gallagher (R. Bozenik)
70'Tomáš Rigo (Jun-Ho Bae)
70'Svante Ingelsson (D. Soumare)
84'J. Fulton (L. Walta)
86'M. Widell
90+1'Josh Tymon

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Stoke CitySwansea

0.9
Goals/game: 1.3; 1.7
Conceded/game: 1.4

AI match analysis

Stoke City win

40%

Draw

30%

Swansea win

30%

53.1%BTTS

49.4%Over 2.5

22.3%Stoke City clean sheet

31.7%Swansea clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a closely contested match between Stoke City and Swansea, as both teams enter without recent victories. Stoke has struggled at home, while Swansea has shown more resilience away, yet their away form remains inconsistent. The numbers favor a draw, considering both teams' scoring averages and recent form.

Stoke City lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
Swansea has won 2 of their last 5 matches despite mixed results away.
Historically, the last 5 encounters have produced 2 wins for Swansea and 2 for Stoke, indicating a competitive rivalry.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

74/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Stoke City

Poor recent formStoke City
Stoke City have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L
Higher league positionSwansea
Swansea sit 12 places above Stoke City in the table.
#9 vs #21
Sharper attackSwansea
Swansea are averaging 1.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.3/game
Tighter defenseSwansea
Swansea are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Stoke City at 40% — final result was Swansea win, Stoke City 1-2 Swansea.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Stoke City2.35market 42.5% · model 40%

Swansea ✓3.03market 33% · model 30%

Draw3.24market 30.8% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Stoke City have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Swansea have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Stoke City wins

3Draws

2Swansea wins

10-10Goals

Swansea

2–0Mar 7, 2026, 3:00 PM

Stoke City

2–1Dec 13, 2025, 12:30 PM

Swansea

Stoke City

3–1Feb 15, 2025, 3:00 PM

Swansea

0–0Oct 5, 2024, 2:00 PM

Stoke City

Swansea

3–0Apr 10, 2024, 7:00 PM

Stoke City

1–1Dec 12, 2023, 7:45 PM

Swansea

1–3Feb 21, 2023, 7:45 PM

Stoke City

1–1Aug 31, 2022, 6:45 PM

Swansea

Odds comparison

Match winner

Stoke City2.35▼best 2.41

Draw3.24▲best 3.40

Swansea3.03▲best 3.17

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.03▼best 2.10

Under 2.51.76▲best 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes1.78▼best 1.83

No1.96▲best 2.10

Double chance

Stoke City/Draw1.36▼best 1.40

Stoke City/Swansea1.32▲best 1.36

Draw/Swansea1.56▲best 1.62

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.39▲best 1.40

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.77▼best 2.80

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28▼best 1.28

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.40▲best 3.50

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Stoke City2.35

Draw3.24▲ 0.04

Swansea3.03▲ 0.12

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Stoke City win0pp

40%

Market

40%

Draw+1pp

30%

Market

29%

Swansea win-1pp

30%

Market

31%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.