Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa — Canadian Premier League

Canadian Premier League· Group Stage

Supra du Quebec

1–2Full-time

Atlético Ottawa

DDLDGoals 7-86th in league

WDWDWLGoals 21-123rd in league

Home2W 2D 5L(10-15)

Away3W 1D 6L(13-21)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

51'M. Chretien
53'Jean-Aniel Assi (J. Dunn-Johnson)
60'O. El Kalkouli (I. Conde)
61'S. Mlah
64'S. Mlah (I. Conde)
69'S. Mlah (A. Sissoko)
69'T. Lebeuf (D. Abzi)
71'E. Garcia (J. Coulanges)
71'Gabriel Antinoro (K. Habibullah)
72'R. Mbomio (R. Khoury)
80'A. Sissoko
83'N. Fleuriau Chateau (R. Khoury)
84'D. Choiniere (Clement Bayiha)
85'L. A. Kwemi (R. Bey)
90+2'M. Chretien
90+2'D. Aguilar (R. Abraham)
90+2'M. Chretien
90+6'Ballou Tabla
90'R. Khoury (N. Fleuriau Chateau)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Supra du QuebecAtlético Ottawa

1.8
Goals/game: 2.1; 2.0
Conceded/game: 1.2

AI match analysis

Supra du Quebec win

38%

Draw

29%

Atlético Ottawa win

33%

67.2%BTTS

68.4%Over 2.5

12.9%Supra du Quebec clean sheet

22.9%Atlético Ottawa clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-2

The data suggests a closely matched contest, with Atlético Ottawa slightly favored due to their stronger recent form, winning three of their last five matches. Supra du Quebec's home performances show some improvement, remaining unbeaten in their last two outings, which might level the playing field. Historically, the last encounter ended in a high-scoring draw, pointing to a potential for further goals in this matchup.

Supra du Quebec unbeaten in last 2 home games
Atlético Ottawa has a better recent form winning 3 of their last 5
Both teams scored an average of 3 goals in their last match against each other

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

67/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Supra du Quebec

Good recent formAtlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Tighter defenseAtlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Sharper attackSupra du Quebec
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game
Higher league positionAtlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa sit 3 places above Supra du Quebec in the table.
#3 vs #6

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Limited recent-match sample
Supra du Quebec has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Supra du Quebec at 38% — final result was Atlético Ottawa win, Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa.

Predicted score was 2-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Supra du Quebec2.17market 46.2% · model 38%

Atlético Ottawa ✓2.84market 35.2% · model 33%

Draw3.45market 29% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Supra du Quebec have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 4 matches.
Atlético Ottawa have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Supra du Quebec wins

1Draws

0Atlético Ottawa wins

3-3Goals

Atlético Ottawa

3–3Aug 11, 2026, 11:00 PM

Supra du Quebec

Odds comparison

Match winner

Supra du Quebec2.17▼best 2.28

Draw3.45▲best 3.60

Atlético Ottawa2.84▲best 3.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.57▼best 1.60

Under 2.52.26▲best 2.30

Both teams to score

Yes1.48▼best 1.57

No2.42▲best 2.55

Double chance

Supra du Quebec/Draw1.35best 1.40

Supra du Quebec/Atlético Ottawa1.24▼best 1.29

Draw/Atlético Ottawa1.58▼best 1.67

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.28▲best 1.28

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.50▼best 3.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33best 4.33

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Supra du Quebec2.17▲ 0.11

Draw3.45▼ 0.15

Atlético Ottawa2.84▼ 0.21

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Supra du Quebec win-3.8pp

38%

Market

41.8%

Draw+2.7pp

29%

Market

26.3%

Atlético Ottawa win+1.1pp

33%

Market

31.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.