Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | 9 | 11 | 1 |
 San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-4
The data suggests a closely contested match between the Tampa Bay Rays and the San Diego Padres, with both teams showing fluctuating recent form. The Rays have struggled defensively, conceding more than they score on average, while the Padres have been more efficient in attack. Historical performance favors the Rays, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters against the Padres, suggesting they may have a slight edge despite their recent form.
- Tampa Bay Rays average 3.6 scored and 4.1 conceded over last 10 matches
- San Diego Padres average 3.9 scored and 2 conceded over last 10 matches
- Recent head-to-head results show Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 out of the last 5 against San Diego Padres
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Tampa Bay Rays
- Historical edgeTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 45% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Tampa Bay Rays at 45% — final result was Tampa Bay Rays win, Tampa Bay Rays 9-4 San Diego Padres.
Predicted score was 4-4.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (50/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- San Diego Padres have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rays are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with San Diego Padres.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Tampa Bay Rays | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.43▲ | 1.30▼ |
| -2 | 3.14▲ | 1.36▼ |
| -1.5 | 2.58▲ | 1.51▼ |
| -1 | 2.12▲ | 1.70▼ |
| +1 | 1.52▲ | 2.44▼ |
| +1.5 | 1.42▲ | 2.75▼ |
| +2 | 1.27▲ | 3.63▼ |
| +2.5 | 1.25▼ | 3.74▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.39▲ | 2.90▼ |
| 6 | 1.43 | 2.70▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.57▲ | 2.36▼ |
| 7 | 1.73▲ | 2.05▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.97▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 8 | 2.12▲ | 1.68▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.31▲ | 1.59▼ |
| 9 | 2.71▲ | 1.43 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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Who is likely to win Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres?+
Our AI model favors Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 45% probability (San Diego Padres 55%).
What time does Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres start?+
First pitch is at Aug 28, 2026, 11:10 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres?+
Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 0, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 0. San Diego Padres: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0. Final: 9-4.