Tepatitlán vs Tlaxcala
Value found
+1.6% edgeTepatitlán win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 29'G. Olvera
- 46'L. Paez (S. Gonzalez)
- 50'F. Sanguinetti (E. Martinez)
- 53'A. Moreno (B. Casas)
- 56'Ismael Govea
- 59'Daniel Álvarez (Jesús Hernández)
- 59'Andres Iniestra (B. Flores)
- 59'Daniel Álvarez (E. Hernandez)
- 59'Ismael Govea (E. Hernandez)
- 59'Jesse Zamudio (E. Hernandez)
- 60'E. Martinez
- 61'Francisco Figueroa
- 64'Francisco Figueroa (Christian)
- 66'A. Moreno (T. Arevalo)
- 68'G. Olvera
- 75'B. Casas (T. Arevalo)
- 81'Raúl Camacho (Raúl Camacho)
- 82'B. Casas (Jesús Godínez)
- 82'Pablo González (E. Robles)
- 83'G. Baez (R. Alonso)
- 90+3'B. Flores
- 90+8'Ismael Govea
- 90+10'Osvaldo Gonzalez
- 0.8
- Goals/game
- 0.8
- 1.3
- Conceded/game
- 1.0
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests a tightly contested match between Tepatitlán and Tlaxcala, as both teams are currently without a win and have each struggled offensively. Tepatitlán has lost their last four matches, while Tlaxcala has managed three draws in their last outings. Head-to-head results indicate a competitive rivalry, but with both teams averaging low goal totals, a draw appears likely.
- Tepatitlán has lost all of their last four matches in the league.
- Tlaxcala has drawn their last three matches, indicating defensive resilience despite not winning.
- Head-to-head matches show a balanced history, with recent encounters yielding two draws out of the last five.
- Both teams have struggled to score, averaging 0.8 goals over their last ten matches.
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Tlaxcala
- Historical edgeTlaxcala
Tlaxcala have won 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
2/8 H2H wins - Tighter defenseTlaxcala
Tlaxcala are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded - Higher league positionTepatitlán
Tepatitlán sit 1 place above Tlaxcala in the table.
#15 vs #16
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Tlaxcala at 38.45% — final result was Tepatitlán win, Tepatitlán 3-2 Tlaxcala.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (70/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Tepatitlán have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tlaxcala have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Tlaxcala
TepatitlánTepatitlánTlaxcalaTlaxcalaTepatitlánTepatitlánTlaxcalaTepatitlánTlaxcalaTlaxcalaTepatitlánTepatitlánTlaxcalaTlaxcalaTepatitlánOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Tepatitlán | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 | LLLL |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 | DLLL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Tlaxcala
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DurangoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Tepatitlán vs Tlaxcala?+
Our AI model favors Tlaxcala to win, with a 38.45% probability (Draw 27.01%, Tepatitlán 34.55%).
What time does Tepatitlán vs Tlaxcala kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 21, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).