Toronto FC vs Charlotte
Match events
- 8'R. Aloko (A. Westwood)
- 14'Markus Cimermancic (Josh Sargent)
- 21'I. Toklomati (Liel Abada)
- 56'Walker Zimmermann
- 58'Henry Kessler (A. Westwood)
- 60'Alonso Coello (Matheus Pereira)
- 69'R. Aloko (T. Smalls)
- 69'Liel Abada (Allan Saint-Maximin)
- 76'D. Salloi (T. Corbeanu)
- 79'I. Toklomati (Archie Goodwin)
- 79'Pep Biel (L. de la Torre)
- 82'Markus Cimermancic (Derrick Etienne)
- 83'Benjamin Kuscevic (Z. Monlouis)
- 85'Matheus Pereira
- 90+4'B. Bronico (D. Diani)
- 90+5'Niklas Dorsch (Kobe Franklin)
- 90'Niklas Dorsch (Derrick Etienne)
Lineups
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
The data suggests that Toronto FC, despite being lower in the league standings, has shown resilience at home, going unbeaten in their last three matches at their venue. Conversely, Charlotte has struggled significantly in away games, accumulating only two wins from eight attempts this season. While their recent head-to-head history heavily favors Charlotte, the current form of both teams shows Toronto is performing better at home, which might play a crucial role in this matchup.
- Toronto FC unbeaten in last 3 home matches
- Charlotte has lost 5 out of 8 away games this season
- Historically, Charlotte has dominated recent encounters with 4 wins in the last 5 matchups
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Toronto FC
- Historical edgeCharlotte
Charlotte have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionCharlotte
Charlotte sit 5 places above Toronto FC in the table.
#5 vs #10 - Good recent formToronto FC
Toronto FC have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Good recent formCharlotte
Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Toronto FC at 42% — final result was a draw, Toronto FC 3-3 Charlotte.
Predicted score was 2-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Toronto FC have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Charlotte have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Charlotte
Toronto FCToronto FCCharlotteCharlotteToronto FCToronto FCCharlotteCharlotteToronto FCToronto FCCharlotteCharlotteToronto FCToronto FCCharlotteOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Toronto FC | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | -6 | 24 | DWDL |
| 5 | Charlotte | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | +6 | 32 | DWLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Da Silva
Based on 10 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Toronto FC
Charlotte
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Atlanta United FCCharlotteFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Toronto FC vs Charlotte?+
Our AI model favors Toronto FC to win, with a 42% probability (Draw 26%, Charlotte 32%).
What time does Toronto FC vs Charlotte kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 19, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).