Trans Narva vs Paide — Meistriliiga

Meistriliiga· Regular Season - 23

Trans Narva

1–1Full-time

Paide

WDLWLWGoals 14-1910th in league

WDDLWLGoals 21-134th in league

Home4W 1D 7L(14-20)

Away4W 5D 3L(21-20)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

4'T. Berardozzi
6'Daniel Cabral
46'M. Lilander (Andrade)
46'Daniel Cabral (H. Ojamaa)
46'R. Smirnov (M. Jobarteh)
52'I. Elysée (E. Zuravljov)
54'T. Berardozzi
55'Andrade
67'A. Filatov (A. Besigirskis)
70'D. Luts (abdouraham badamosi)
73'W. Awusi
76'H. Ojamaa
82'A. Gero (A. Škinjov)
82'A. Ivanjušin (S. Agaptsev)
82'W. Awusi (J. Imeh)
83'E. Zuravljov

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Trans NarvaPaide

1.4
Goals/game: 2.1; 1.9
Conceded/game: 1.3

AI match analysis

Trans Narva win

29%

Draw

24%

Paide win

47%

64.1%BTTS

65.1%Over 2.5

13.5%Trans Narva clean sheet

25.9%Paide clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Paide holds a competitive edge over Trans Narva, having won 3 of their last 5 encounters. Trans Narva's home form shows struggle, with a record of just 4 wins in 11 matches and a negative goal difference. Meanwhile, Paide's recent performance indicates consistency, outscoring their opponents with an average of 1.9 goals per game.

Paide has won 3 out of the last 5 meetings against Trans Narva
Trans Narva has a negative goal difference of -33 this season
Paide averages 1.9 goals scored per game compared to Trans Narva's 1.4

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

82/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Paide

Poor recent formTrans Narva
Trans Narva have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Sharper attackPaide
Paide are averaging 2.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.1/game
Tighter defensePaide
Paide are conceding just 1.3 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.3/game conceded
Higher league positionPaide
Paide sit 6 places above Trans Narva in the table.
#4 vs #10

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Paide at 47% — final result was a draw, Trans Narva 1-1 Paide.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (82/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Paide1.91market 52.2% · model 47%

Trans Narva3.30market 30.3% · model 29%

Draw ✓3.51market 28.5% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Trans Narva have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Paide have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Trans Narva wins

2Draws

3Paide wins

10-13Goals

Trans Narva

2–3Sep 27, 2025, 2:00 PM

Paide

2–0Jul 20, 2025, 4:00 PM

Trans Narva

Paide

0–1May 31, 2025, 2:00 PM

Trans Narva

1–0Mar 15, 2025, 12:30 PM

Paide

Trans Narva

0–3Sep 29, 2024, 2:00 PM

Paide

2–3Sep 25, 2024, 2:00 PM

Trans Narva

Paide

2–2Jul 4, 2024, 4:00 PM

Trans Narva

1–1Apr 28, 2024, 2:00 PM

Paide

Odds comparison

Match winner

Trans Narva3.30▼best 3.46

Draw3.51▼best 4.01

Paide1.91▲best 1.99

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.65▼best 1.71

Under 2.52.06▲best 2.25

Both teams to score

Yes1.58▼best 1.62

No2.15▲best 2.25

Double chance

Trans Narva/Draw1.76▼best 1.80

Trans Narva/Paide1.22▲best 1.29

Draw/Paide1.26▲best 1.30

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.25▲best 3.25

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33▼best 1.33

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.50best 4.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.17best 1.17

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Trans Narva3.30▼ 0.33

Draw3.51▼ 0.13

Paide1.91▲ 0.12

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Trans Narva win+1.7pp

29%

Market

27.3%

Draw-1.7pp

24%

Market

25.7%

Paide win0pp

47%

Market

47%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.