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Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn

Meistriliiga· Regular Season - 24
Vaprus
1–2Full-time
Flora Tallinn
LLWLGoals 11-167th in league
WLLLGoals 22-153rd in league
Home5W 2D 5L(20-20)
Away8W 0D 4L(21-16)
Parnu Rannastaadion

Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu · Capacity 2,495 · grass · Referee: K. Koppel

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 28'M. Kukkonen (S. Alamaa)
  2. 36'O. Pihela (M. Kukkonen)
  3. 46'K. Kauber (M. Villota)
  4. 61'S. Tovstik (R. Veering)
  5. 62'R. Valdmets
  6. 68'U. Nomm (M. Seppik)
  7. 71'S. Viidas
  8. 71'S. Alamaa (D. Zotov)
  9. 84'J. Sild
  10. 86'M. Kukkonen (K. Lorenz)
  11. 86'T. Usta (E. Paltser)
Lineups unavailable for this match.
VaprusFlora Tallinn
1.1
Goals/game
2.2
1.6
Conceded/game
1.5

AI match analysis

Vaprus win
19.61%
Draw
20.94%
Flora Tallinn win
59.45%
61.9%BTTS
62%Over 2.5
15%Vaprus clean sheet
27.3%Flora Tallinn clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-3

The data suggests Flora Tallinn has a significant advantage going into this match, having won their last three encounters with Vaprus by a margin of three goals. Vaprus struggles at home, reflected in their recent form of one win in five matches. Flora's solid away record enhances their outlook, further supporting the expectation of a potential victory.

  • Flora Tallinn has won the last 3 meetings against Vaprus by at least 3 goals
  • Vaprus has lost 3 of their last 5 matches
  • Flora Tallinn has a strong away record with 7 wins in 10 matches this season
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
99/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Flora Tallinn

  • Sharper attackFlora Tallinn

    Flora Tallinn are averaging 2.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.2/game
  • Historical edgeFlora Tallinn

    Flora Tallinn have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    6/8 H2H wins
  • Poor recent formVaprus

    Vaprus have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 0D 4L
  • Poor recent formFlora Tallinn

    Flora Tallinn have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Flora Tallinn at 59.45% — final result was Flora Tallinn win, Vaprus 1-2 Flora Tallinn.

Predicted score was 1-3.

This was a high confidence pick (99/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Flora Tallinn ✓1.53market 65.4% · model 59.45%
Draw4.12market 24.3% · model 20.94%
Vaprus4.68market 21.4% · model 19.61%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Vaprus have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Flora Tallinn have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Vaprus wins
0Draws
6Flora Tallinn wins
3-16Goals
Vaprus
0–3Nov 8, 2025, 10:30 AM
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
3–0Sep 13, 2025, 11:30 AM
Vaprus
Vaprus
0–3May 2, 2025, 4:00 PM
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
0–1Mar 8, 2025, 10:30 AM
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
3–0Sep 29, 2024, 11:30 AM
Vaprus
Vaprus
0–1Aug 23, 2024, 4:30 PM
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
0–1May 11, 2024, 11:30 AM
Vaprus
Vaprus
1–3Apr 14, 2024, 11:30 AM
Flora Tallinn

Odds comparison

Match winner

Vaprus4.68▲best 5.00
Draw4.12▲best 4.43
Flora Tallinn1.53▼best 1.57

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.43best 1.50
Under 2.52.51▼best 2.66

Both teams to score

Yes1.50▲best 1.57
No2.32▼best 2.45

Double chance

Vaprus/Draw2.23▲best 2.40
Vaprus/Flora Tallinn1.16▼best 1.22
Draw/Flora Tallinn1.14▼best 1.17

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.08▼best 1.08
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes7.00▲best 7.00
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.75▼best 2.75
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.40▲best 1.40

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Vaprus4.68▲ 0.18
Draw4.12▼ 0.08
Flora Tallinn1.53▼ 0.02
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Vaprus win+0.4pp
AI
19.61%
Market
19.2%
Draw-1pp
AI
20.94%
Market
21.9%
Flora Tallinn win+0.6pp
AI
59.45%
Market
58.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
7
Vaprus
238312-1327LDLW
3
Flora Tallinn
231409+1742WLWL

Pre-match comparison

1.1Goals scored per game2.2
1.6Goals conceded per game1.5

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

K. Koppel

3.92Yellow cards / game
0.08Red cards / game
0.54Penalties scored / game

Based on 13 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Vaprus

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
100%

Flora Tallinn

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
66.7%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn?+

Our AI model favors Flora Tallinn to win, with a 59.45% probability (Draw 20.94%, Vaprus 19.61%).

Where is Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn played?+

The match is played at Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu (capacity 2,495).

What time does Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 4:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).