Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia

CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Round of 16
Vasco DA Gama
00Full-time
Olimpia
LWLWGoals 9-172nd in league
WLWWGoals 21-211st in league
Home2W 0D 1L(7-2)
Away2W 0D 1L(4-4)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 34'F. Cardozo
  2. 35'Thiago Mendes
  3. 45+1'Johan Rojas
  4. 56'S. Quintana (F. Alfonso)
  5. 56'F. Alfonso
  6. 57'Nuno Moreira (Marino Hinestroza)
  7. 58'Adson (C. Spinelli)
  8. 64'Braian Romero (T. I. Caballero Fleytas)
  9. 64'R. Benitez (R. Lezcano)
  10. 67'Thiago Mendes (Ramon Rique)
  11. 67'Cuiabano (Lucas Piton)
  12. 84'David (Lukas Zuccarello)
  13. 86'E. Delmas (A. Rodríguez)
  14. 86'R. Sánchez (R. Ortiz)

Lineups

Vasco DA GamaOlimpia
0.9
Goals/game
2.1
1.7
Conceded/game
2.1

AI match analysis

Vasco DA Gama win
53.59%
Draw
28.65%
Olimpia win
17.76%
66.1%BTTS
66%Over 2.5
15%Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
22.3%Olimpia clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a closely contested matchup between Vasco DA Gama and Olimpia, with both teams having strong performances in their recent outings. Vasco's home advantage may play a key role, although their goal-scoring issues could limit their overall effectiveness. Meanwhile, Olimpia's superior standing and scoring average indicate they could capitalize on any weaknesses presented by the home side.

  • Vasco DA Gama has a strong home record with 2 wins in 3 matches this season.
  • Olimpia is ranked higher in the standings with recent form indicating 3 wins in the last 5 matches.
  • In their last 10 matches, Vasco DA Gama averages only 0.9 goals scored per game, suggesting a struggle to find the net.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
81/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Vasco DA Gama

  • Sharper attackOlimpia

    Olimpia are averaging 2.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.1/game
  • Good recent formOlimpia

    Olimpia have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Tighter defenseOlimpia

    Olimpia are conceding just 2.1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    2.1/game conceded
  • Higher league positionOlimpia

    Olimpia sit 1 place above Vasco DA Gama in the table.

    #1 vs #2

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Vasco DA Gama at 53.59% — final result was a draw, Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Olimpia.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (81/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Vasco DA Gama1.76market 56.9% · model 53.59%
Draw3.36market 29.8% · model 28.65%
Olimpia4.96market 20.2% · model 17.76%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Vasco DA Gama have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Olimpia have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1Vasco DA Gama wins
0Draws
0Olimpia wins
4-1Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Vasco DA Gama1.76best 1.85
Draw3.36best 3.85
Olimpia4.96best 5.35

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.31best 2.47
Under 2.51.60best 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes2.12best 2.20
No1.66best 1.90

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama/Draw1.16best 1.19
Vasco DA Gama/Olimpia1.28best 1.36
Draw/Olimpia2.04best 2.15

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.80best 3.85
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.23best 1.25
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.93best 1.95
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.77best 1.80

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Vasco DA Gama1.76 0.08
Draw3.36 0.49
Olimpia4.96 0.31
10 Aug13 Aug

Model vs market

Vasco DA Gama win+0.4pp
AI
53.59%
Market
53.2%
Draw+0.8pp
AI
28.65%
Market
27.9%
Olimpia win-1.1pp
AI
17.76%
Market
18.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
2
Vasco DA Gama
6312+410LWWL
1
Olimpia
6411+413WWLD

Pre-match comparison

0.9Goals scored per game2.1
1.7Goals conceded per game2.1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

D. Herrera

3Yellow cards / game
0Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 4 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Vasco DA Gama

0-15'
0%
16-30'
28.6%
31-45'
14.3%
46-60'
14.3%
61-75'
14.3%
76-90+'
28.6%

Olimpia

0-15'
0%
16-30'
15.4%
31-45'
15.4%
46-60'
15.4%
61-75'
15.4%
76-90+'
38.5%

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?+

Our AI model favors Vasco DA Gama to win, with a 53.59% probability (Draw 28.65%, Olimpia 17.76%).

What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 13, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).