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Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama

CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Round of 16
Olimpia
1–4Full-time
Vasco DA Gama
LDWWGoals 16-151st in league
DDLLGoals 4-182nd in league
Home2W 1D 0L(6-2)
Away1W 1D 1L(3-4)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 16'Esteban Matus
  2. 22'Ramon Rique
  3. 29'Thiago Mendes (David)
  4. 36'David (Puma Rodríguez)
  5. 55'F. Cardozo (H. Sandoval)
  6. 55'A. Gomez
  7. 64'Braian Romero (Sebastián Ferreira)
  8. 64'F. Cardozo (H. Sandoval)
  9. 64'Ramon Rique (Tchê Tchê)
  10. 64'H. Sandoval
  11. 67'B. Bentaberry
  12. 70'Adson (Thiago Mendes)
  13. 77'H. Sandoval
  14. 77'M. Gamarra
  15. 77'Goal Disallowed - Foul — H. Sandoval
  16. 79'Thiago Mendes
  17. 79'David (C. Spinelli)
  18. 80'E. Delmas (R. Lezcano)
  19. 80'A. Gomez (N. Moreira)
  20. 81'J. F. Alfaro (A. F. Franco Zayas)
  21. 81'B. Bentaberry (G. Vargas)
  22. 82'David (C. Spinelli)
  23. 83'Carlos Cuesta
  24. 85'C. Spinelli (Puma Rodríguez)
  25. 87'Robert Renan (Paulo Henrique)
  26. 87'Adson (Lucas Freitas)
  27. 87'E. Delmas (R. Lezcano)

Lineups

Olimpia
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-14-3-3
1. Gastón Olveira
23. Esteban Matus
15
15. M. Gamarra
2
← 81'
2. B. Bentaberry
27
27. R. Caceres
26
26. R. Sanchez
37
37. R. Benitez
5
← 81'
5. J. F. Alfaro
7
← 64'
7. F. Cardozo
20
← 87'
20. E. Delmas
← 64'
31. Braian Romero
11
← 80'
11. A. Gomez
← 82'
7. David
28
← 87'
28. Adson
23
23. Thiago Mendes
88
88. Cauan Barros
83
← 64'
83. Ramon Rique
66
66. Cuiabano
30
← 87'
30. Robert Renan
46
46. Carlos Cuesta
2
2. Puma Rodríguez
1
1. Leonardo
Pablo SanchezCoachPedro Emanuel
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
OlimpiaVasco DA Gama
1.6
Goals/game
0.4
1.5
Conceded/game
1.8

AI match analysis

Olimpia win
37%
Draw
29%
Vasco DA Gama win
34%
50.1%BTTS
49.4%Over 2.5
38.7%Olimpia clean sheet
18.3%Vasco DA Gama clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a closely contested match where both teams have shown defensive strengths, particularly in their head-to-head encounter which ended in a goalless draw. Olimpia's home performance offers them a slight edge, but Vasco's recent form indicates they could also secure a vital away point.

  • Olimpia unbeaten in last 5 home games (2W 1D 0L)
  • Vasco DA Gama has not won in their last 4 matches (WLWWL)
  • Both teams recently drew in their last head-to-head match (0-0)
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Olimpia

  • Poor recent formVasco DA Gama

    Vasco DA Gama have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    0W 2D 3L
  • Strong home recordOlimpia

    Olimpia have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.

    2/3 home wins
  • Weak away recordVasco DA Gama

    Vasco DA Gama have won 1 of their last 3 away matches.

    1/3 away wins
  • Sharper attackOlimpia

    Olimpia are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.6/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 37% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Olimpia at 37% — final result was Vasco DA Gama win, Olimpia 1-4 Vasco DA Gama.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Olimpia2.62market 38.2% · model 37%
Vasco DA Gama ✓2.82market 35.5% · model 34%
Draw3.06market 32.7% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Olimpia have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Vasco DA Gama have averaged 0.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Olimpia wins
1Draws
0Vasco DA Gama wins
0-0Goals
Vasco DA Gama
0–0Aug 13, 2026, 10:00 PM
Olimpia

Odds comparison

Match winner

Olimpia2.62▲best 2.76
Draw3.06▼best 3.20
Vasco DA Gama2.82▼best 2.95

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.31▲best 2.40
Under 2.51.59▼best 1.66

Both teams to score

Yes1.92▲best 1.97
No1.80▼best 1.85

Double chance

Olimpia/Draw1.41▲best 1.47
Olimpia/Vasco DA Gama1.35▲best 1.40
Draw/Vasco DA Gama1.47▼best 1.52

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75▲best 2.75
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.98▼best 3.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.35▲best 1.36
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40▼best 1.40

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Olimpia2.62▲ 0.30
Draw3.06▼ 0.09
Vasco DA Gama2.82▼ 0.22
17 Aug – 20 Aug

Model vs market

Olimpia win+1.1pp
AI
37%
Market
35.9%
Draw-1.7pp
AI
29%
Market
30.7%
Vasco DA Gama win+0.6pp
AI
34%
Market
33.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
Olimpia
6411+413WWLD
2
Vasco DA Gama
6312+410LWWL

Pre-match comparison

1.6Goals scored per game0.4
1.5Goals conceded per game1.8

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

J. Benitez

5.5Yellow cards / game
0.5Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 2 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Olimpia

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
20%
61-75'
40%
76-90+'
40%

Vasco DA Gama

0-15'
0%
16-30'
50%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

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Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM
River Plate
Santa Fe
11.2572.00%
X5.4219.00%
213.019.00%
Prediction:River Plate

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?+

Our AI model favors Olimpia to win, with a 37% probability (Draw 29%, Vasco DA Gama 34%).

What time does Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 20, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).