Vasco DA Gama vs Santos — Serie A

Serie A· Regular Season - 23

Vasco DA Gama

0–3Full-time

Santos

LWDWLWGoals 9-1419th in league

DDWDDLGoals 14-914th in league

Home5W 2D 5L(13-17)

Away1W 4D 5L(15-19)

Match events

14'Jair (Santiago Sosa)
39'Robert Renan
63'Christian Oliva (Gustavinho)
63'G. Caballero (B. Rollheiser)
63'Álvaro Barreal (Rony)
66'Lucas Piton (J. Rodríguez)
66'C. Spinelli (David)
66'F. Colidio (Marino Hinestroza)
68'Gabriel Barbosa (B. Rollheiser)
70'Gabriel Barbosa (Thaciano)
75'Tchê Tchê (Nuno Moreira)
77'Willian Arão
81'Luan Peres
84'Paulo Henrique
89'Joao Schmidt (João Paulo Ananias)

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama

Santos

4-2-3-1

Pedro EmanuelCoach

Cuca

AI match analysis

Vasco DA Gama win

49.55%

Draw

27.22%

Santos win

23.23%

44.7%BTTS

40.4%Over 2.5

24.7%Vasco DA Gama clean sheet

40.7%Santos clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a tightly contested match, as both teams sit in the relegation zone with identical point tallies. Historically, Vasco DA Gama has had the upper hand over Santos, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters, which could influence the home team's confidence. Given their struggles for wins, the match could likely finish in a stalemate.

Vasco DA Gama unbeaten in last 5 home matches against Santos
Santos has not won any away matches this season
Both teams have struggled for form, with Vasco DA Gama earning only 2 draws in their last 5 games

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

85/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Vasco DA Gama

Strong home recordVasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama have won 5 of their last 12 home matches.
5/12 home wins
Weak away recordSantos
Santos have won 1 of their last 10 away matches.
1/10 away wins
Sharper attackSantos
Santos are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Historical edgeSantos
Santos have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Vasco DA Gama at 49.55% — final result was Santos win, Vasco DA Gama 0-3 Santos.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (85/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Vasco DA Gama1.93market 51.8% · model 49.55%

Draw3.39market 29.5% · model 27.22%

Santos ✓3.96market 25.3% · model 23.23%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Vasco DA Gama have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Santos have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Vasco DA Gama wins

1Draws

4Santos wins

12-12Goals

Santos

0–6Aug 17, 2025, 7:00 PM

Vasco DA Gama

2–1Mar 30, 2025, 9:30 PM

Santos

4–1Oct 1, 2023, 7:00 PM

Vasco DA Gama

0–1May 14, 2023, 7:00 PM

Santos

Vasco DA Gama

1–0Dec 20, 2020, 7:00 PM

Santos

2–2Sep 3, 2020, 12:30 AM

Vasco DA Gama

0–1Oct 5, 2019, 8:00 PM

Santos

3–0May 12, 2019, 7:00 PM

Vasco DA Gama

Odds comparison

Match winner

Vasco DA Gama1.93▼best 1.98

Draw3.39best 3.50

Santos3.96▲best 4.20

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.99▼best 2.04

Under 2.51.80▲best 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes1.80▼best 1.85

No1.91▲best 1.95

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama/Draw1.24▼best 1.27

Vasco DA Gama/Santos1.29best 1.32

Draw/Santos1.83▲best 1.90

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20▼best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.17▲best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.50▼best 2.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.49▲best 1.50

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Vasco DA Gama1.93

Draw3.39▲ 0.06

Santos3.96▲ 0.16

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Vasco DA Gama win+0.9pp

AI

49.55%

Market

48.6%

Draw-0.5pp

AI

27.22%

Market

27.7%

Santos win-0.5pp

AI

23.23%

Market

23.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
19	Vasco DA Gama	23	5	7	11	-14	22	LLDDL
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	-3	26	DWLDL

Pre-match comparison

0.9Goals scored per game1.4

1.4Goals conceded per game0.9

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

Lucas Casagrande

6.33Yellow cards / game

0Red cards / game

0.33Penalties scored / game

Based on 6 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Vasco DA Gama

0-15'

0%

16-30'

28.6%

31-45'

14.3%

46-60'

14.3%

61-75'

14.3%

76-90+'

28.6%

Santos

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

20%

46-60'

40%

61-75'

20%

76-90+'

20%

Match statistics

57%Possession43%

1.04Expected goals (xG)1.91

3Shots on target5

19Total shots11

12Shots off target5

4Blocked shots1

15Shots inside the box6

4Shots outside the box5

4Corners2

0Offsides1

14Fouls11

2Yellow cards0

—Red cards—

2Goalkeeper saves4

408Total passes324

336Accurate passes244

82%Pass accuracy75%

Player ratings

1Willian ArãoSantos⚽ 18.6
2Luan PeresSantos⚽ 17.9
3Gabriel BrazãoSantos7.7
4Gabriel BarbosaSantos⚽ 17.5
5Gonzalo EscobarSantos7.3
6Joao SchmidtSantos7.2

Box score

Vasco DA Gama

1

1Léo JardimG · 90'

5.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles—

Duels100%

96Paulo HenriqueD · 90'

🟨5.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes27%

Tackles1

Duels33%

46

46Carlos CuestaD · 90'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes46%

Tackles1

Duels75%

30

30Robert RenanD · 90'

🟨6.7

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes55%

Tackles1

Duels57%

8

8JairM · 14'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes6%

Tackles—

Duels—

3

3Tchê TchêM · 75'

6.2

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes16%

Tackles—

Duels20%

23

23Thiago Mendes (C)M · 90'

6.9

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes47%

Tackles1

Duels46%

11Andrés GómezM · 90'

6.5

More stats

Shots0/3 on target

Passes15%

Tackles1

Duels40%

6

6Lucas PitonD · 66'

6.3

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes21%

Tackles—

Duels20%

77

77C. SpinelliF · 65'

6.3

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes5%

Tackles2

Duels50%

9

9F. ColidioM · 65'

7.0

More stats

Shots0/3 on target

Passes13%

Tackles—

Duels50%

Bench (12)

28

28AdsonF

—

13

13Daniel FuzatoG

—

43

43Lucas FreitasD

—

2

2J. RodríguezD · 24'

5.9

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes7%

Tackles—

Duels50%

88

88Cauan BarrosM

—

18Marino HinestrozaF · 25'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes4%

Tackles—

Duels43%

10Johan RojasF

—

83

83Ramon RiqueM

—

7

7DavidF · 25'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels100%

17

17Nuno MoreiraM · 15'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels—

82

82Riquelme AvellarD

—

5Santiago SosaM · 76'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes40%

Tackles2

Duels50%

Santos

77Gabriel BrazãoG · 90'

7.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes14%

Tackles—

Duels100%

31Gonzalo EscobarD · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles6

Duels82%

28Christian OlivaM · 62'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes8%

Tackles5

Duels67%

5

5Joao SchmidtM · 89'

7.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes29%

Tackles4

Duels73%

17

17G. CaballeroM · 63'

6.6

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes9%

Tackles1

Duels40%

22Álvaro BarrealM · 62'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes13%

Tackles2

Duels38%

9Gabriel BarbosaF · 69'

⚽ 17.5

More stats

Shots1/3 on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels33%

14

14Luan PeresD · 90'

⚽ 17.9

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes26%

Tackles1

Duels63%

15Willian ArãoD · 90'

⚽ 18.6

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes31%

Tackles—

Duels50%

10Neymar (C)M · 90'

6.9

More stats

Shots2/4 on target

Passes28%

Tackles3

Duels58%

18Igor ViníciusD · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes22%

Tackles3

Duels36%

Bench (12)

32

32B. RollheiserF · 27'

🅰️ 16.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes16%

Tackles—

Duels50%

26

26João Paulo AnaniasD · 1'

—

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles—

Duels0%

1DiogenesG

—

42

42João AlencarD

—

81

81Samuel MendesM

—

30

30MiguelitoM

—

27

27D. FernandesF

—

16ThacianoM · 21'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels100%

7

7Robinho JúniorF

—

11RonyF · 28'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes9%

Tackles2

Duels33%

34

34João PauloG

—

48

48GustavinhoM · 28'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes9%

Tackles2

Duels75%

More Serie A predictions

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?+

Our AI model favors Vasco DA Gama to win, with a 49.55% probability (Draw 27.22%, Santos 23.23%).

What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Santos kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).