Venados FC vs Dorados — Liga de Expansión MX

Liga de Expansión MX· Apertura - 5

Venados FC

4–2Full-time

Dorados

LLWDWLGoals 14-194th in league

LLWLWDGoals 10-2013th in league

Home3W 0D 0L(10-4)

Away1W 0D 1L(4-4)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

6'S. Lora (J. Reyes)
8'A. Flores (B. Sanchez)
27'R. Franco
37'S. Lora (D. Tejeda)
41'B. Sanchez
46'B. Sanchez (A. Egaña)
59'S. Cervantes (B. Ordorica)
59'Francisco Contreras (Carlos Galicia)
60'R. Franco
63'G. Padilla (W. Gonzalez Rodriguez)
65'Ochoa Brandon (P. Kilani)
66'S. Lora (A. Dominguez)
76'K. Amador (E. Torres)
78'Fernando González Peña (L. Vargas)
84'D. Tejeda (L. Macias)
85'S. Lora (L. Lazarte)
85'J. Reyes (M. Montelongo)
90'L. Macias

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Venados FCDorados

1.4
Goals/game: 1.0; 1.9
Conceded/game: 2.0

AI match analysis

Venados FC win

54%

Draw

24%

Dorados win

22%

62.6%BTTS

61%Over 2.5

23.5%Venados FC clean sheet

18.3%Dorados clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The analysis suggests that Venados FC has a solid home advantage, winning both of their fixtures at home this season. In contrast, Dorados has struggled defensively, allowing an average of 2 goals against in their recent matches. Given the historical scoring pattern favoring Venados in their head-to-head matchups, the numbers indicate a slight edge for the home team.

Venados FC has won both of its home games this season.
Dorados averages 1 goal scored but concedes 2 per game over their last 10 matches.
Historically, Venados FC has scored more goals against Dorados in recent encounters.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

91/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Venados FC

Higher league positionVenados FC
Venados FC sit 9 places above Dorados in the table.
#4 vs #13
Sharper attackVenados FC
Venados FC are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Tighter defenseVenados FC
Venados FC are conceding just 1.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.9/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Venados FC at 54% — final result was Venados FC win, Venados FC 4-2 Dorados.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (91/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Venados FC ✓1.69market 59.2% · model 54%

Draw3.88market 25.8% · model 24%

Dorados4.16market 24% · model 22%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Venados FC have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Dorados have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Venados FC wins

1Draws

3Dorados wins

18-15Goals

Venados FC

4–4Jan 25, 2026, 2:00 AM

Dorados

1–0Aug 17, 2025, 3:00 AM

Venados FC

Dorados

3–1Apr 6, 2025, 3:05 AM

Venados FC

4–0Oct 19, 2024, 1:00 AM

Dorados

2–3Feb 1, 2024, 1:05 AM

Venados FC

4–1Oct 16, 2023, 1:05 AM

Dorados

Venados FC

2–1Mar 30, 2022, 1:05 AM

Dorados

3–0Oct 28, 2021, 2:05 AM

Venados FC

Odds comparison

Match winner

Venados FC1.69▲best 1.80

Draw3.88▼best 4.20

Dorados4.16▼best 5.10

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.54▲best 1.62

Under 2.52.30▼best 2.45

Both teams to score

Yes1.55▼best 1.67

No2.26▲best 2.40

Double chance

Venados FC/Draw1.18▲best 1.25

Venados FC/Dorados1.20▲best 1.25

Draw/Dorados2.07▼best 2.30

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Venados FC1.69▲ 0.21

Draw3.88▼ 0.37

Dorados4.16▼ 1.21

17 Aug – 20 Aug

Model vs market

Venados FC win-0.3pp

54%

Market

54.3%

Draw+0.3pp

24%

Market

23.7%

Dorados win0pp

22%

Market

22%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.