Vitoria vs Bahia — Serie A

Serie A· Regular Season - 24

Vitoria

0–2Full-time

Bahia

WDWLWLGoals 8-812th in league

WLWLDDGoals 13-156th in league

Home8W 1D 3L(16-9)

Away5W 4D 3L(17-17)

Match events

26'Matheuzinho
42'Rodrigo Nestor
46'Diego Tarzia (Tomás Pochettino)
46'Walace (Tomás Pochettino)
46'Walace (Emmanuel Martínez)
63'Erick (Marinho)
67'A. Véliz (Erick Pulga)
69'Erick (Jean Lucas)
70'Matheuzinho (Renato Kayzer)
77'E. Britez (Mateusinho)
79'Erick Pulga
82'Rodrigo Nestor (Michel Araújo)
82'Ruan Pablo (Michel Araújo)
82'Erick Pulga (Ruan Pablo)
90+4'A. Véliz (Everaldo)
90+7'Jean Lucas
90+7'Jean Lucas (Michel Araújo)
90+7'Cacá

Lineups

Vitoria

Bahia

4-2-3-1

4-3-3

Ventura JairCoach

Ceni Rogerio

AI match analysis

Vitoria win

36%

Draw

30%

Bahia win

34%

44.4%BTTS

37.7%Over 2.5

35%Vitoria clean sheet

31.7%Bahia clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The statistics indicate a competitive match, with Bahia struggling to secure a victory in their last five games while Vitoria boasts a solid home record. Both teams have averaged just over one goal per game recently, pointing towards a likely tight encounter. Historical head-to-head results reflect a balance, further suggesting a draw could be a plausible outcome.

Bahia's recent form shows 5 matches without a win (DDD/DD)
Vitoria has a strong home record with 8 wins from 11
Vitoria recently scored an average of 0.9 goals per game in their last 10 matches
The last 5 head-to-head matches were closely contested with mixed results.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Vitoria

Poor recent formVitoria
Vitoria have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Strong home recordVitoria
Vitoria have won 8 of their last 12 home matches.
8/12 home wins
Strong away recordBahia
Bahia have won 5 of their last 12 away matches.
5/12 away wins
Tighter defenseVitoria
Vitoria are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Vitoria at 36% — final result was Bahia win, Vitoria 0-2 Bahia.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Vitoria2.61market 38.3% · model 36%

Bahia ✓2.79market 35.9% · model 34%

Draw3.09market 32.4% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Vitoria have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Bahia have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Vitoria wins

2Draws

3Bahia wins

14-13Goals

Vitoria

2–1Oct 17, 2025, 12:30 AM

Bahia

2–1May 18, 2025, 7:00 PM

Vitoria

2–2Nov 11, 2018, 7:00 PM

Bahia

4–1Jul 22, 2018, 7:00 PM

Vitoria

Bahia

2–1Oct 22, 2017, 7:00 PM

Vitoria

0–0Jul 2, 2017, 7:00 PM

Bahia

1–3Oct 3, 2015, 7:30 PM

Vitoria

4–1Jul 4, 2015, 7:30 PM

Bahia

Odds comparison

Match winner

Vitoria2.61▲best 2.70

Draw3.09▼best 3.35

Bahia2.79▲best 2.90

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.17▲best 2.28

Under 2.51.67▼best 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes1.82▲best 1.88

No1.89▼best 2.00

Double chance

Vitoria/Draw1.41▼best 1.45

Vitoria/Bahia1.34▲best 1.37

Draw/Bahia1.46▼best 1.55

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.00▼best 3.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.35▲best 1.36

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.29▲best 1.33

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.35▼best 3.45

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Vitoria2.61▲ 0.08

Draw3.09▼ 0.04

Bahia2.78▲ 0.05

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Vitoria win+0.1pp

AI

36%

Market

35.9%

Draw-0.4pp

AI

30%

Market

30.4%

Bahia win+0.3pp

AI

34%

Market

33.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	-12	29	LWLLL
6	Bahia	24	9	10	5	+6	37	WDDDD

Pre-match comparison

0.8Goals scored per game1.3

0.8Goals conceded per game1.5

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

Raphael Claus

4Yellow cards / game

0.11Red cards / game

0.3Penalties scored / game

Based on 44 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Vitoria

0-15'

0%

16-30'

66.7%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

33.3%

76-90+'

0%

Bahia

0-15'

33.3%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

33.3%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

33.3%

76-90+'

0%

Match statistics

47%Possession53%

0.46Expected goals (xG)3.96

2Shots on target9

14Total shots28

8Shots off target12

4Blocked shots7

6Shots inside the box17

8Shots outside the box11

7Corners7

1Offsides1

13Fouls10

2Yellow cards3

—Red cards—

6Goalkeeper saves2

296Total passes340

210Accurate passes278

71%Pass accuracy82%

Player ratings

1Luciano JubaBahia8.9
2RonaldoBahia7.7
3Michel AraújoBahia🅰️ 17.7
4A. VélizBahia⚽ 17.6
5Lucas ArcanjoVitoria7.6
6Erick PulgaBahia🅰️ 1🟨7.5

Box score

Vitoria

1

1Lucas Arcanjo (C)G · 90'

7.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes16%

Tackles—

Duels—

2

2E. BritezD · 77'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes13%

Tackles2

Duels50%

88

88Ze VitorM · 90'

6.6

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes27%

Tackles3

Duels42%

15WalaceM · 45'

7.3

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes15%

Tackles3

Duels80%

33

33ErickM · 63'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes12%

Tackles—

Duels18%

91

91ReneF · 90'

5.9

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes9%

Tackles1

Duels18%

10

10MatheuzinhoM · 70'

🟨6.5

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes17%

Tackles1

Duels33%

13

13RamonD · 90'

6.2

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes26%

Tackles2

Duels33%

12Diego TarziaM · 45'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes7%

Tackles—

Duels50%

25

25CacáD · 90'

🟨7.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles1

Duels40%

36

36Luan CândidoD · 90'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles2

Duels36%

Bench (12)

83

83JamersonD

—

6

6Emmanuel MartínezM · 45'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles1

Duels50%

71

71Yuri SenaG

—

26

26EdenilsonM

—

98

98MateusinhoD · 13'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles2

Duels75%

8Tomás PochettinoM · 45'

6.3

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes7%

Tackles2

Duels43%

11

11OsvaldoF

—

79

79Renato KayzerF · 20'

6.3

23

23Fabrício SantosF

—

7MarinhoF · 27'

6.7

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes7%

Tackles—

Duels33%

18

18KauanD

—

9

9Alex BrunoF

—

Bahia

1

1RonaldoG · 90'

7.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes25%

Tackles1

Duels100%

31Román GómezD · 90'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes22%

Tackles2

Duels50%

33

33David DuarteD · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes26%

Tackles—

Duels78%

21Santiago Ramos MingoD · 90'

7.2

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes26%

Tackles—

Duels80%

46Luciano JubaD · 90'

8.9

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes39%

Tackles4

Duels67%

5Nicolás Acevedo (C)M · 90'

7.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes42%

Tackles1

Duels57%

11Rodrigo NestorM · 82'

🟨6.9

More stats

Shots0/3 on target

Passes24%

Tackles2

Duels43%

9

9A. VélizF · 89'

⚽ 17.6

More stats

Shots1/4 on target

Passes6%

Tackles—

Duels56%

99

99C. OliveraF · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes22%

Tackles1

Duels38%

16Erick PulgaF · 82'

🅰️ 1🟨7.5

More stats

Shots2/4 on target

Passes18%

Tackles—

Duels50%

14

14ErickM · 71'

7.2

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes11%

Tackles6

Duels71%

Bench (12)

6Jean LucasM · 19'

⚽ 1🟨7.3

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels67%

12

12Willian JoséF

—

17Guido HerreraG

—

4

4KanuD

—

3Marco MorenoD

—

44

44Marcos VictorD

—

66José GuilhermeD

—

15Michel AraújoM · 8'

🅰️ 17.7

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes6%

Tackles1

Duels80%

23Mateo SanabriaF

—

8Caio AlexandreM

—

27EveraldoF · 1'

—

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles—

Duels—

77Ruan PabloF · 8'

6.5

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes—

Tackles—

Duels0%

More Serie A predictions

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Vitoria vs Bahia?+

Our AI model favors Vitoria to win, with a 36% probability (Draw 30%, Bahia 34%).

What time does Vitoria vs Bahia kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).