Wellington vs North Harbour — Bunnings NPC

Bunnings NPC· 3

Wellington

7–47Full-time

North Harbour

LLLLLLPoints 300-388

LLWWWLPoints 249-259

Home14W 0D 6L(621-472)

Away4W 0D 16L(590-629)

Value found

+3.6% edge

North Harbour win

1.82AI fair odds

1.88Bookmaker odds

+3.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Full-time

Score by half

Team	1H	2H	Final
Wellington	—	—	7
North Harbour	—	—	47

AI match analysis

Wellington win

40%

Draw

North Harbour win

55%

Predicted score: 28-24

Data suggests a competitive matchup as both teams have struggled, but North Harbour's recent form offers a slight edge. Wellington's defense has been inconsistent, conceding an average of 33.7 points per game, while North Harbour has struggled to score, averaging only 20.6 points. Historically, Wellington's recent win in their last encounter may provide them with some confidence, but the recent trends favor North Harbour.

Wellington lost 4 of their last 5 matches
North Harbour has a better recent win record than Wellington
Wellington scored an average of 32.1 points per game in their last 10 matches
Wellington won the last head-to-head match 26-6 against North Harbour

AI ConfidenceLow confidence

49/100

Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors North Harbour

Tighter defenseNorth Harbour
North Harbour are conceding just 25.9 points per game over their recent matches.
25.9/game conceded
Historical edgeWellington
Wellington have won 1 of the last 1 meetings between these two teams.
1/1 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked North Harbour at 55% — final result was North Harbour win, Wellington 7-47 North Harbour.

Predicted score was 28-24.

The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (49/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

North Harbour ✓1.88market 53.1% · model 55%

Wellington1.98market 50.5% · model 40%

Draw20.00market 5% · model 5%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Wellington have averaged 30 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
North Harbour have averaged 24.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Wellington1.98▼best 2.05AI 40%

Draw20.00▼best 29.00AI 5%

North Harbour1.88▲best 1.91AI 55%

Points spread

Line	Wellington	North Harbour
-2.5	2.10▼	1.65▲
-2	2.14▲	1.72▼
-1.5	2.01▲	1.74▼
-1	1.96▲	1.86▼
+0.5	1.85	1.85
+1	1.80▼	1.91
+1.5	1.79▼	1.93▲
+2.5	1.69▼	2.04▲

Total points

Line	Over	Under
62.5	1.73▼	2.04▲
63	1.90	1.92
63.5	1.80▼	1.95▲
64	1.83	1.94
64.5	1.84▼	1.91▲
65	1.92▼	1.84
65.5	1.88▼	1.86▲
66.5	1.95▼	1.78▲

Average price across 8 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Wellington1.98▼ 0.01

Draw20.00▼ 1.67

North Harbour1.88▲ 0.02

13 Aug – 13 Aug

Model vs market

Wellington win-6.5pp

40%

Market

46.5%

Draw+0.4pp

Market

4.6%

North Harbour win+6.1pp

55%

Market

48.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.