West Brom vs Burnley
The Hawthorns, West Bromwich · Capacity 28,003 · grass · Referee: A. Backhouse
Match events
- 8'Callum Styles
- 18'Harry Whitwell (J. Morgan)
- 26'O. Sonne
- 33'G. Campbell
- 46'O. Sonne (Connor Roberts)
- 46'I. Price
- 57'H. Mejbri (Zeki Amdouni)
- 57'Armando Broja (U. Raghouber)
- 57'J. Laurent (D. Satpaev)
- 65'I. Price
- 70'M. Edwards
- 78'J. Morgan (B. Stewart)
- 78'B. Humphreys (Lucas Pires)
- 81'Harry Whitwell (R. Nzingoula)
- 90+4'Jayson Molumby (Chris Mepham)
- 1.5
- Goals/game
- 0.9
- 0.6
- Conceded/game
- 2.0
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests a closely contested match between West Brom and Burnley, with both teams showing recent tendencies to draw. West Brom's strong home form, paired with Burnley's struggles on the road, indicates that neither side holds a clear advantage. Historical results between these teams support the likelihood of a draw, with four of their last five meetings ending level.
- West Brom unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Burnley has not won an away game in their last 5
- The last 5 head-to-head matches feature 4 draws
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors West Brom
- Tighter defenseWest Brom
West Brom are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded - Higher league positionWest Brom
West Brom sit 16 places above Burnley in the table.
#2 vs #18 - Good recent formWest Brom
West Brom have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Sharper attackWest Brom
West Brom are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 37% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked West Brom at 37.23% — final result was West Brom win, West Brom 3-1 Burnley.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (69/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- West Brom have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Burnley have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Burnley
West BromWest BromBurnleyBurnleyWest BromWest BromBurnleyBurnleyWest BromWest BromBurnleyWest BromBurnleyBurnleyWest BromOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Backhouse
Based on 12 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
West Brom
Burnley
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SwanseaFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win West Brom vs Burnley?+
Our AI model favors West Brom to win, with a 37.23% probability (Draw 28.81%, Burnley 33.96%).
Where is West Brom vs Burnley played?+
The match is played at The Hawthorns, West Bromwich (capacity 28,003).
What time does West Brom vs Burnley kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 11:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).