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Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie· Regular Season - 2
Willem II
1–4Full-time
NEC Nijmegen
WLWLGoals 16-1016th in league
LWLLGoals 15-1511th in league
Home0W 0D 1L(1-4)
Away1W 0D 0L(4-1)
Koning Willem II Stadion

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg · Capacity 14,700 · grass · Referee: S. Gozubuyuk

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 16'Nathan Tjoe-A-On
  2. 45+3'Adam Tahaui (Clement Bischoff)
  3. 54'T. Chery
  4. 65'Bryan Linssen
  5. 66'Bryan Linssen (K. Sierhuis)
  6. 66'D. Nejašmić (N. Lebreton)
  7. 66'Clement Bischoff (Emre Mor)
  8. 67'K. Sierhuis (T. Chery)
  9. 69'Nathan Tjoe-A-On (Hidde ter Avest)
  10. 69'E. Gurbuz (T. Verheijdt)
  11. 69'A. Ciranni (Mats Lemmens)
  12. 76'D. Fonville (A. Kabar)
  13. 78'T. Verheijdt (Hidde ter Avest)
  14. 89'Adam Tahaui (B. Nuytinck)
  15. 89'Kasper Boogaard (D. Iglesias)
Lineups unavailable for this match.
Willem IINEC Nijmegen
1.6
Goals/game
1.5
1.0
Conceded/game
1.5

AI match analysis

Willem II win
20%
Draw
21%
NEC Nijmegen win
59%
56.2%BTTS
53.1%Over 2.5
28.7%Willem II clean sheet
21.2%NEC Nijmegen clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that NEC Nijmegen enters this match with a slight edge given their recent away form, having won 3 of their last 5 away matches. Conversely, Willem II is currently struggling, having lost their last match by a significant margin. Historically, although recent head-to-head matchups have been competitive, NEC has shown better form overall, supporting the likelihood of an away victory.

  • NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 5 away matches
  • Willem II has lost their last match by 3 goals
  • Last 5 head-to-head matches include two wins for Willem II, but NEC has more recent success
  • Both teams have not won any of their first games this season
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
98/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors NEC Nijmegen

  • Historical edgeNEC Nijmegen

    NEC Nijmegen have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    4/8 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionNEC Nijmegen

    NEC Nijmegen sit 5 places above Willem II in the table.

    #11 vs #16
  • Tighter defenseWillem II

    Willem II are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked NEC Nijmegen at 59% — final result was NEC Nijmegen win, Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (98/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

NEC Nijmegen ✓1.62market 61.6% · model 59%
Draw4.32market 23.1% · model 21%
Willem II4.68market 21.4% · model 20%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Willem II have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • NEC Nijmegen have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Willem II wins
3Draws
4NEC Nijmegen wins
5-6Goals
NEC Nijmegen
1–1May 3, 2025, 2:30 PM
Willem II
Willem II
4–1Dec 22, 2024, 3:45 PM
NEC Nijmegen
Willem II
0–1Dec 22, 2021, 5:45 PM
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
0–0Sep 12, 2021, 10:15 AM
Willem II
Willem II
0–1Jan 15, 2017, 3:45 PM
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
0–0Sep 25, 2016, 10:30 AM
Willem II
NEC Nijmegen
1–0Jan 17, 2016, 3:45 PM
Willem II
Willem II
0–1Aug 28, 2015, 6:00 PM
NEC Nijmegen

Odds comparison

Match winner

Willem II4.68▼best 5.00
Draw4.32▼best 4.65
NEC Nijmegen1.62▲best 1.66

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.45▲best 1.49
Under 2.52.64▼best 2.75

Both teams to score

Yes1.49best 1.53
No2.45▼best 2.55

Double chance

Willem II/Draw2.24▼best 2.35
Willem II/NEC Nijmegen1.20▲best 1.22
Draw/NEC Nijmegen1.18▲best 1.21

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.10▲best 1.10
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes7.00▼best 7.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33▼best 1.33
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.13▲best 3.25

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Willem II4.68▼ 0.65
Draw4.32▼ 0.17
NEC Nijmegen1.62▲ 0.13
12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Willem II win-0.1pp
AI
20%
Market
20.1%
Draw-0.8pp
AI
21%
Market
21.8%
NEC Nijmegen win+0.9pp
AI
59%
Market
58.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
16
Willem II
2002-60LL
11
NEC Nijmegen
2101+23WL

Pre-match comparison

1.6Goals scored per game1.5
1Goals conceded per game1.5

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk

3.25Yellow cards / game
0.5Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 4 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Willem II

0-15'
100%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

NEC Nijmegen

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
20%
76-90+'
80%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?+

Our AI model favors NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 59% probability (Draw 21%, Willem II 20%).

Where is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen played?+

The match is played at Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg (capacity 14,700).

What time does Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 2:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).